BMIE Market 22408

Spotsylvania County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,586 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,186 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,851 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,728 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,112 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,726 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$378,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,905 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22408
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+2.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+71.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 22–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	53 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22408. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.5	88	40%	+35.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.3	64	35%	+22.5
Market Momentum Score	53.1	53	25%	+13.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,586	90	40%	+35.9
Median household income (ACS)	110,112	87	40%	+34.6
Households (ACS)	12,186	89	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.4	67	25%	+16.7
Population (ACS)	31,586	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,112	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	2.9	59	50%	+29.6
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (83)

By cuisine

American 15 · Sandwiches 11 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 7 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Italian 4 · Seafood 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Greek 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Peruvian 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 47 · Quick service 19 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 9 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A. Smith Bowman Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1 Bowman Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service		5303 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9865 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Arena Sports Bar & grill	Bar		3992 Lafayette Blvd	open
Baghdad Mediterranean Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Mediterranean · Sandwiches · Middle Eastern	11144 Patriot Hwy	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5325 Jefferson Davis Hwy.	open
Bar Restaurant Sabor Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	10908 Courthouse Rd	open
Blimpie	Quick service		10900 Courthouse Rd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	9815 Hospital Blvd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	10419 Patriot Hwy	open
China Lin, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10853 Tidewater Trl	open
Crab O'Clock	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	4714 Mine Rd	open
Cuppa Care Coffee & Gifts	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4600 Spotsylvania County Pkwy	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10907 Courthouse Rd	open
Danny's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	10657 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5325 Jefferson Davis Hwy.	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee	5101 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11785 Tidewater Trl	open
El Asador Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	100 Olde Greenwich Dr	open
El Rinconcito Bar Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	10615 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Fat Girl Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4916 Queensbury Cir	open
Fish N' Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	10908 Courthouse Rd Ste 105	open
Four Seasons Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10660 Patriot Hwy	open
Fredericksburg Bills Backers	Bar · Casual dining		10760 Patriot Hwy	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10336 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Garnjana Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4416 Lafayette Blvd	open
Ginny's Seafood & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4606 Patriot Hwy	open
Golden Corral Golden Corral Buffet & Grill	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10320 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Happy Michoacana	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11146 Patriot Hwy	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10706 Patriot Hwy	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	11825 Tidewater Trail	open
Hashtag Gyro & Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · Burgers	11330 Patriot Hwy	open
Hit the Spot Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	3318 Bourbon St	open
Hooters Hooters	Casual dining · Bar	American	10400 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Jimmy The Greek Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · American	3401 Lafayette Blvd	open
Kabul Restaurant and Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Asian	4714 Mine Rd	open
Lancaster Gate	Bar			open
Legends Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10500 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Legends Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10500 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Lin's Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10853 Tidewater Trail	open
Lin's Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5097 Patriot Hwy	open
Maggie’s Four Mile Fork	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	10813 Courthouse Rd	open
Maltese Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		11800 Main St Bldg 3	open
Maltese Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		11047 Pierson Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10601 Patriot Hwy Unit 5158	open
Mi Tierra Taco & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10756 Patriot Hwy	open
Namak Mirch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	10635 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Pancho Villa Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	10500 Spotsylvania Ave	open
People's Market and Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	11901 Tidewater Trail	open
Perfect Pollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Peruvian · American	11503 Tidewater Trl	open
Pizza Heaven Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10849 Tidewater Trl	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10512 Patriot Hwy	open
Primo Pizza Primo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	10849 Tidewater Trail	open
Raise the Roost	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10803 Courthouse Rd	open
Robin's Nest Cafe	Café · Casual dining	Coffee · American	3380 Shannon Airport Cir	open
Roma Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3824 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Roma Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	116 Olde Greenwich Dr	open
Ruby Tuesday	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4714 Mine Rd	open
Sam's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	3996 Lafayette Blvd	open
Sideways Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		10105 Hackberry Ct	open
Spit N' Game Lounge	Bar		10817 Tidewater Trail	open
Spotlight Fredericksbur	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar		10707 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	10821 Tidewater Trail	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10847 Tidewater Trail	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	10635 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Sweet Basil Macarons	Bakery	Bakery	10813 Courthouse Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4720 Mine Road	open
Taqueria El Habanero Sabroso	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	11505 Tidewater Trail	open
Taqueria Flavio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3824 Patriot Hwy	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches	5325 Jefferson Davis	open
The Game Room FXBG	Bar · Casual dining		3992 Lafayette Blvd	open
The Happy Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Seafood	11313 Tidewater Trail	open
The Social FXBG	Casual dining · Bar		11047 Pierson Dr B	open
The Tavern	Bar	American	10649 Spotsylvania Ave	open
The UFO Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3300 Dill Smith Dr	open
Timberlake-Spotsylvania	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3715 Latimers Knoll Ct	open
Vibin' With Val (Valerie Rosemond Settles, Vintner)	Winery / distillery / taproom		10691 Spotsylvania Ave	open
Vito's Pizza & Subs Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	10817 Tidewater Trl	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	5328 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Wonz	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10908 Courthouse Rd Ste 102	open
Agora Coffee & Gifts	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4600 Spotsylvania Pkwy	closed
E Vitale Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3508 Shannon Park Dr	closed
Grandma's Getaway	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4010 Lafayette Blvd Ste 2	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	22	22	10	11	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	23	23	9	14	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	21	21	10	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	24	23	10	13	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	25	25	12	13	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	25	24	14	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	31	28	13	15	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	33	30	16	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	34	30	16	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	33	29	17	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	35	34	19	15	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	38	37	22	15	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	40	39	23	16	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	41	40	22	17	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	39	36	18	17	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	38	36	17	18	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	38	36	17	18	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	43	39	18	19	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	39	35	17	16	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	40	34	18	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	40	35	18	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	36	33	15	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	29	10	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	31	13	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	33	30	13	16	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	40	36	15	19	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22408. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.