BMIE Market 22482

Northumberland County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,075 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±430 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,728 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,993 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,889 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$47,308 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,274 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	65.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$919 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$355,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,708 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22482
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	73.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+15.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+83.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22482. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	37.5	37	40%	+15.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37.2	37	35%	+13.0
Market Momentum Score	67.6	68	25%	+16.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,075	52	40%	+21.0
Median household income (ACS)	47,308	12	40%	+4.8
Households (ACS)	1,728	59	20%	+11.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	35%	+22.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	71.5	6	25%	+1.6
Population (ACS)	3,075	52	20%	+10.5
Median household income (ACS)	47,308	12	20%	+2.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.2	79	50%	+39.5
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	30%	+19.5
20-year restaurant growth	15.8	43	20%	+8.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 6 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 4 · Breakfast 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Thai 2 · Bakery 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 12 · Bar 5 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Delivery-focused 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anna's Italian Restaurant Kilmarnock	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	150 Old Fair Grounds Way	open
Bay Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused · Casual dining	American	10 N Main St	open
Car Wash Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	481 N Main St	open
Chao Phraya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	45 S Main St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	433 N Main St	open
Dameron Seafood Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10428 Jessie DuPont Memorial Hwy	open
Ditchley Cider Works	Winery / distillery / taproom		1571 Ditchley Rd	open
Dixie Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	232 N Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	23 West Church Street	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1749 G Washington Mem Hwy	open
Donna's on Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	37 N Main St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	437 N Main St	open
Filibusters	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34 E Church St	open
Front Porch Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	139 S Main St	open
Get in and get	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	507 N Main St	open
Good Luck Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1025 Goodluck Rd	open
Great Fortune	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	443 N Main St	open
Hong Kong Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	410 N Main St	open
Joe's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies · American · Burgers	469 N Main St	open
KC's Crabs & Cues	Bar · Casual dining	Seafood	10428 Jessie Dupont Memorial Hwy	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	433 N Main St	open
Kilmarnock Brewhaus	Brewery / taproom		44 W Church St	open
Lee's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	30 S Main St	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	608 N Main St	open
Los Patrones Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	652 N Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Virginia Street Highway 3	open
Mundy Point Invesments, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		37 N Main St	open
Nacho Average Brewpub	Bar		44 W Church St	open
Nn Burger Kilmarnock Restaurant	Bar		62 Irvington Rd	open
Northern Neck Popcorn Bag Northern Neck Popcorn Bag	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)		41 S Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	589 N Main St	open
Sal's Italian Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	456 N Main St	open
Small Town Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	81 S Main St	open
Stevie's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	469 N Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	364 N Main St	open
Subway	Quick service		200 Old Fair Grounds Way	open
Sweet Dreams Bakery Bar & Bistro, LLC	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast		open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	466 N Main St	open
Thai Pot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	36 N Main St	open
Thai Pot	Restaurant (service type not stated)		238 N Main St	open
That Damn Mary Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		13 W Church St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	432 N Main St	open
West Church Street Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	17 W Church St	open
Yolicious - Premium frozen yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	20 Old Fair Grounds Way	open
Buoy Food &amp Deli, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1676 Waverly Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	17	17	10	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	17	17	9	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	19	19	10	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	18	10	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	18	9	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	24	23	11	11	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	25	24	12	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	21	20	11	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	20	10	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	22	22	11	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	22	12	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	19	9	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	9	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	19	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	21	20	11	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	22	11	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22482. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.