BMIE Market 22508

Orange County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,557 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,163 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,124 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±431 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,696 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,686 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,357 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,796 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$389,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	57.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22508
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+566.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 20–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22508. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.2	81	40%	+32.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.7	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	77.2	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,557	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	111,357	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	6,124	77	20%	+15.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.9	61	25%	+15.2
Population (ACS)	15,557	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	111,357	87	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	17.7	75	50%	+37.7
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Mexican 5 · Asian 4 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sandwiches 4 · American 3 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 5 · Dessert 4 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bella Cucina of the Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mexican	4444 Germanna Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	36061 Goodwin Dr	open
Champs Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	32301 Constitution Hwy	open
ClearWater Fire-Grill & Catering	Casual dining · Catering · Bar	BBQ	4276 Germanna Hwy	open
Cool Zone Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4437 Germanna Hwy	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	36103 Goodwin Dr	open
El Vaquero West El Vaquero West Restaurant LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4266 Germanna Hwy	open
Funnel Cake Café, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35058 Germanna Heights Dr	open
Graze Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	32345 Constitution Hwy	open
Guacamole Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	32345 Constitution Hwy	open
Hong Kong House Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	32345 Constitution Hwy	open
Lake of the Woods Country Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		102 Lakeview Pkwy	open
Lin's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5390 Lyndon Dr	open
Mama's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Sandwiches · Pizza	32311 Constitution Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5480 Germanna Hwy	open
Mine Run Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	31017 Old Plank Rd	open
Performance Auto Crafters	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7086 Hot Rod Ln	open
Purple Cow Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4207 Germanna Hwy	open
Rita’s of Locust Grove VA Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	32385 Constitution Hwy	open
Rose Haven Travel	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Chinese	O LN	open
Sam's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	36080 Goodwin Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2222 A And K Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	36105 Goodwin Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5390 Lyndon Dr Ste D	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4332 Germanna Highway	open
The Icebox Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4324 Germanna Hwy	open
The Red Bull Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4300 Flat Run Rd	open
Tokyo restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	36099 Goodwin Dr	open
Tops China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	36080 Goodwin Dr	open
Two Brothers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5390 Lyndon Dr	open
Vallarta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	32345 Constitution Hwy	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2533 Germanna Hwy	open
Witch's Brew Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	32377 Constitution Hwy	open
Doughlicious Donuts & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	32377 Constitution Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	18	9	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	8	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	9	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	19	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	20	10	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	20	11	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22508. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22433	5.0 mi	1	1999

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.