BMIE Market 22546

Caroline County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,392 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±816 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,744 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±389 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,850 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,479 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$89,247 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,676 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$301,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	163.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22546
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+128.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+700.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 18–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.64) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22546. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.64, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.8	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.1	82	35%	+28.7
Market Momentum Score	76.8	77	25%	+19.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,392	80	40%	+32.0
Median household income (ACS)	89,247	73	40%	+29.0
Households (ACS)	6,744	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	77	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	18,392	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	89,247	73	20%	+14.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	128.6	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Mexican 2 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Filipino 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 12 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	23720 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	23866 Rogers Clark Blvd.	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	24279 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Coffee Common Grounds	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7334 Ladysmith Commons Blvd	open
Crab Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American		open
Cuppa Cheer ~ Tea Room & Gift Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	17484 Center Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	23845 Rogers Clarke Blvd 23845 Rogers Clarke Blvd	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24279 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	17489 Jefferson Davis Highway	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		8150 Ladysmith Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	23807 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Giuseppe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	18024 Center Dr	open
Godfather's Pizza Express Godfather's Pizza Dayton, OH	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	23845 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Golden Corral Buffet & Grill Golden Corral Buffet & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	American	23866 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18414 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Lin's Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	18045 US-1	open
Maria's Apple Cider Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	1015 Swan Ln	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	I-95 & Ladysmith Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	23781 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Mi Jalisco Mi Jalisco Mexican Restaurant - Ashland	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	24409 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
New Beginning Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	7448 B Commerce Wy	open
Patriot Farms Restaurant	Bar		23866 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Rusty Beaver Brewery	Brewery / taproom		18043 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Sams Pizza and Subs Sam's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	17069 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Sassafras Shade Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		4492 Ladysmith Rd	open
Snack \|shack, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		321 Land Or Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	17485 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	23845 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Sullivan’s Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	8217 County Fair Ln	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	23629 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24279 Roger Clark Blvd	open
The Timbers Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	American	8026 Prosperity Way	open
Tito Mel's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	18043 US-1	open
Virginia Vine Experience, LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		16380 Moores Mill Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	24148 Welcome Way Dr	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	23890 Rogers Clark Blvd	open
Russell Stover Chocolates	Dessert		23361 Business Center Ct	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22546. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.