BMIE Market 22551

Spotsylvania County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,146 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,602 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,442 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,242 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,274 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,370 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,438 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,492 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$391,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,830 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	168.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22551
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22551. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.0	85	40%	+34.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.3	64	35%	+22.5
Market Momentum Score	56.1	56	25%	+14.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,146	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	110,370	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	8,442	82	20%	+16.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.1	99	25%	+24.8
Population (ACS)	24,146	85	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	110,370	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+50.4
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+5.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · Steakhouse 3 · American 1 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bakery 4 · Bar 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Food truck 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2 Hens Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	10911 W Catharpin Rd	open
Angela's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	6336 Patriot Hwy	open
Burnside Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	11503 Burnside Pl	open
Cherry Hill Fish Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood	6330 Morris Rd	open
China Wong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6340 Patriot Hwy	open
Cj's Steak & Ale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	5152 Courthouse Rd	open
Dixie Joe's Crab Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	7940 Rebel Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6374 Jefferson Davis Hwy	open
Flutter Pies and More	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	14822 Woolfolk Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10212 Post Oak Road	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6261 Lawyers Rd	open
Lake Anna Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5621 Courthouse Rd	open
Lake Anna Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Las Hermanas Latín Cuisine	Food truck		5743 Courthouse Rd	open
Log Home Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5727 Courthouse Rd	open
Mattaponi Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7530 Morris Rd	open
Patriot Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6376 Patriot Hwy	open
Peanut's Steak and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse	6330 A Morris Rd	open
Sweet Lew's Kettle Corn	Food truck		8800 Alsop Town Rd	open
The Floured Fern Micro-bakery	Bakery	Bakery	8010 Sourwood Ct	open
The Mad Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	6330 Morris Rd	open
The St. Peter Homestead	Bakery	Bakery	8119 Belmont Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2006	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	—	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22551. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.