BMIE Market 22553

Spotsylvania County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,207 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±377 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,935 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,975 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,856 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$480,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,937 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22553
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+26.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+11.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+72.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22553. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.5	85	40%	+33.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.4	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	67.6	68	25%	+16.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,207	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	135,856	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	5,846	77	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.8	62	35%	+21.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.0	68	25%	+17.1
Population (ACS)	17,207	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	135,856	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	26.7	82	50%	+40.9
10-year restaurant growth	18.8	62	30%	+18.6
20-year restaurant growth	11.8	40	20%	+8.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Burgers 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 10 · Bar 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Battlefield Bagel	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	6912 Meeting St	open
Biscuit Batch LLC	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Breakfast	9112 Old Battlefield Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	10461 Hilltop Plaza Way	open
China Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9833 Courthouse Rd	open
China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	10414 Courthouse Rd	open
Cider Lab	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7501 Graham St Ste 128	open
Courthouse Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	8955 Courthouse Rd	open
Danny's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Italian	9837 Courthouse Rd	open
El Patron El Patrón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	El Gran Patron 2, 7409 Laughlin Blvd	open
GoGo Bento	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	9833 Courthouse Rd	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9811 Courthouse Rd	open
ITAVIE New York Grill & Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Bakery	7610 Heths Salient St	open
La Deliciosa Fxbg	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10418 Courthouse Rd	open
La Patrona Taqueria & Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10412 Courthouse Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10607 Hilltop Plaza Way	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10420 Courthouse Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7415 laughlin blvd	open
Pollito-Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other) · Chicken / wings	10420 Courthouse Rd	open
Quiznos	Quick service		10412 Courthouse Rd	open
Red Bowl Usa Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9833 Courthouse Rd	open
Sam's Pizza Sam's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	8925 Courthouse Rd	open
Samar International Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8925 Courthouse Rd	open
Scafa's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	10349 Courthouse Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9110 Old Battlefield Blvd, Suite 108	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6356 Patriot Hwy	open
T&amp Z Company Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9837 Courthouse Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	10491 Hilltop Plaza Way	open
The Pig Pitt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10412 Courthouse Rd	open
The Snack Shack	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	8901 Courthouse Rd	open
The Stoner Bar	Bar		9107 Wood Ibis Ct	open
Wilderness Run Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		11109 Plank Rd	open
Wings To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10421 Courthouse Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	19	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	15	5	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	6	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	23	22	6	13	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	20	6	13	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	6	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	16	5	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	4	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22553. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22407	3.4 mi	141	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.