BMIE Market 22556

Stafford County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,785 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,953 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,665 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±626 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	25,675 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,483 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$137,287 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,616 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$486,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,752 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22556
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+255.6% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	38 (range 33–43) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22556. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.7	91	40%	+36.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.6	81	35%	+28.2
Market Momentum Score	42.8	43	25%	+10.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,785	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	137,287	94	40%	+37.8
Households (ACS)	9,665	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.1	72	25%	+18.0
Population (ACS)	31,785	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	137,287	94	20%	+18.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.0	24	50%	+15.2
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+27.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (64)

By cuisine

American 13 · Pizza 8 · Asian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Chicken / wings 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Italian 3 · Japanese 3 · African 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Korean 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Quick service 11 · Casual dining 10 · Bar 8 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&A Fish LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1075 Garrisonville Rd Ste 108	open
Al Basha Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	1475 Stafford Market Pl Suite 103	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1000 Stafford Market Pl	open
Barley Naked Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		15 Tech Pkwy	open
Blended Farm Fresh Grill	Food truck · Catering	African	75 Grand Garden Ln	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1020 Stafford Market Pl	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	1050 Stafford Market Pl	open
Bulgogi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean · BBQ · Asian	32 Doc Stone Rd	open
Castiglias Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26 Doc Stone Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service		930 Garrisonville Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	25 Dunn Dr	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1030 Stafford Market Place	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	100 Prosperity Ln Ste 101	open
Cici's Pizza	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	50 Dunn Dr	open
Crumbl - Stafford	Dessert	Dessert	1495 Stafford Market Pl Ste 121	open
Dalia's African Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	African · American	364 Garrisonville Rd SUITE 101 101	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	556 Garrisonville Road	open
Don Chema's Tienda and Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	50 Dunn Dr #123	open
Donnelly's Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		128 Choptank Rd	open
Duck Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Breakfast	1475 Stafford Marketplace, Ste 103	open
El Patron Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		418 washington st	open
Fatty's Winghouse Bar and Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	308 Worth Ave #117	open
Fiesta Taqueria & Pupuseria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	1075 Garrisonville Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	1515 Stafford Market Place Unit 117	open
Fun Time Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	100 Oakridge Dr	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	20 Prosperity Ln	open
Hong Kong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1075 Garrisonville Rd	open
Hot n Fluffy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	308 Worth Ave 117	open
IHOP IHOP	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	320 Worth Ave	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1030 Stafford Market Place	open
Jerry's Subs And Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1495 Stafford Market Pl	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1495 Stafford Market Place Unit. 119	open
Kung Fu Tea (Stafford) Kung Fu Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	1475 Stafford Market Pl	open
La Kosher Nostra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican		open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1465 Stafford Market Pl #109	open
Menchie's	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1515 Stafford Market Pl #120	open
Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1495 Stafford Market Place	open
monte grande tortilleria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	70 Doc Stone Rd #109	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes Nothing Bundt Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1425 Stafford Market Pl Ste 103	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	308 Worth Ave Suite 101	open
Paddy's Public House	Bar · Casual dining		9 Center St #109	open
Paisano's Pizza Paisano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1515 Stafford Market Pl #119	open
Panaderia Emanuel Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Latin American (other) · Coffee	70 Doc Stone Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	1005 Stafford Marketplace	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1075 Garrisonville Rd Ste 114	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	320 Worth Ave	open
Ricco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Halal / kosher	50 N Stafford Complex Ctr	open
Rss Development Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1495 Stafford Market Pl Ste 111	open
Sake	Bar	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	65 Dunn Dr	open
Salad Creations	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1495 Stafford Market Pl	open
Sam's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	8 Arrowhead Dr	open
Sarku Japan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	101-1475 Stafford Market Place	open
Super Rico Stafford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	1435 Stafford Market Pl	open
Sweeto Burrito HCK Hot Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	50 N Stafford Complex Ctr	open
Szechuan D'lite	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	70 Doc Stone Rd Ste 111	open
TAJ INDIAN CUISINE	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	909 Garrisonville Rd	open
Taka Japanese Steakhouse & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		70 Doc Stone Rd	open
Taste of Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1515 Stafford Market Pl	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		320 Worth Ave	open
Thai House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	26 Doc Stone Rd	open
The Grounds Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	50 N Stafford Complex Ctr UNIT 107	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1465 Stafford Marketplace	open
Umi Japanese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	20 Dunn Dr	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1495 Stafford Market Pl Ste 30	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	9	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	14	11	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	23	23	12	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	25	25	12	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	24	11	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	26	15	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	24	24	14	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	24	24	15	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	31	31	14	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	33	17	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	32	16	12	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	32	15	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	30	30	16	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	32	31	14	13	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	32	13	15	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22556. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.