BMIE Market 22580

Caroline County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±704 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,951 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±242 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,160 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,104 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,603 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,824 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,182 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$353,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±52,436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	94.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2020 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2020 detail (NAICS2017) · by USPS ZIP 22580
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2015 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2025	2 (range 1–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1998–2020 (8 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22580. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1998–2020, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67	67	40%	+26.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.3	76	35%	+26.7
Market Momentum Score	97.2	97	25%	+24.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,107	61	40%	+24.3
Median household income (ACS)	93,603	76	40%	+30.6
Households (ACS)	1,951	61	20%	+12.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.9	89	25%	+34.1
Population (ACS)	5,107	61	20%	+18.7
Median household income (ACS)	93,603	76	20%	+23.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	200	99	50%	+70.7
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+26.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (7)

By cuisine

Mexican 2 · American 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Quick service 3 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
118 Bar and Grill at Dominion Raceway	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6501 Dominion Raceway	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5115 Mudd Tavern Rd 5115 Mudd Tavern Rd	open
Poco Loco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	5414 Mudd Tavern Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	5210 Mudd Tavern Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	5219 Mudd Tavern Road	open
The Village Bistro and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American		open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service		5216 Mudd Tavern Road	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1997	1	—	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22580. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.