BMIE Market 22602

Frederick County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	32,840 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,510 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±584 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	28,443 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,156 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,398 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,983 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,461 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±125 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$379,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,374 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	113.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22602
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+81.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+262.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 29–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22602. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.6	87	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.8	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	40.5	41	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	32,840	91	40%	+36.2
Median household income (ACS)	101,398	82	40%	+32.7
Households (ACS)	11,510	88	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.4	52	35%	+18.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	32,840	91	20%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	101,398	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.4	19	50%	+9.6
10-year restaurant growth	7.4	52	30%	+15.5
20-year restaurant growth	81.3	77	20%	+15.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

American 11 · Mexican 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 6 · Asian 5 · Dessert 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Steakhouse 3 · BBQ 2 · Caribbean 2 · Chinese 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 41 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 8 · Bar 7 · Dessert 6 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Food truck 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Buffet 2 · Café 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3Fires Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Pizza · Bakery	246 Milroy Dr	open
A Lo Catracho 504	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Alamo	Bakery	Bakery		open
Alfapan Hispanic Bakery & Restaurant	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican · Latin American (other)	Delco Plaza	open
Altos De Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	185 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
American Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American · Asian	1060 Millwood Pike	open
Anthony's Pizza Anthony's Thornton Park	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1855 Senseny Rd	open
Belle Starr Restaurant & Saloon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Delco Plaza	open
Big Bad W Pit BBQ of Winchester	Food truck · Quick service	BBQ		open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	180 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	251 Maranto Manor Dr	open
Carrabba's Italian Grill Carrabba's Italian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	231 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
CD's Coffee and Barber Shop	Coffee shop · Dessert	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2953 Northwestern Turnpike	open
Chinatown Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1085 Millwood Pike	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	200 Front Royal Pike	open
Curto's Wood Fired Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	212 Grocery Ave, 212 Grocery Ave	open
Daily Grind	Coffee shop	Coffee	166 Costello Dr	open
Dairy Corner	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	177 Dairy Corner Pl	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	992 Millwood Pike	open
El Bohío dominican kitchen, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	3323 Valley Pike	open
El valiente	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1046 Millwood Pike	open
Garber Ice Cream Co	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	360 Front Royal Pike	open
Golden Corral Golden Corral Buffet & Grill	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	120 Costello Dr	open
Goldenseal Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		158 Front Royal Pike	open
Hibachi Grill and Supreme Buffet	Buffet	Asian	1080 Millwood Pike	open
Hoss's Steak and Sea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1080 Millwood Pike	open
IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	170 Front Royal Pike	open
International House of Pancakes	Quick service			open
Island Delights Caribbean Restaurant winchester va	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Caribbean · American	1016 Millwood Pike	open
Island Food To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)		212 Grocery Ave	open
James Charles Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		4063 Middle Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	235 Kernstown Commons	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1832 Berryville Pike	open
Kulas Kitchen	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	107 Wickham Ter	open
Laxmi Narayan Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 Maranto Manor Dr	open
Lone Oak Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	290 Airport Rd	open
Los Toltecos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1046 Millwood Pike	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	210 Kernstown Commons Boulevard	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	222 Grocery Ave	open
Mimosa Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	202 Grocery Ave Ste 101	open
Motley Q Smoke Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3323 Valley Pike	open
Nonni’s Eats & Sweets	Food truck		3578 Valley Pike	open
Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	124 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Patti's Place	Café	Coffee	3178 Laurel Grove Rd	open
Poblanos Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	202 Grocery Ave	open
R&l Foods, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		154 Creekside Ln	open
Ragin Reef Winchester	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	212 Grocery Ave	open
Ravens	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Roaming Bistro	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	T-Mobile, 175 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Rock Harbor Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		365 Rock Harbor Dr	open
Root to Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)		158 Front Royal Pike	open
Sante	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		233 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Sclafani's New York Bagels and Bread	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	237 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Shelia's Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	4652 Back Mountain Rd	open
Strites Donuts 3LLC	Coffee shop · Food truck · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3578 Valley Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	220 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	210 Grocery Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	992 Millwood Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	201 Maranto Manor Dr	open
Taqueria El Pueblito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3137 Front Royal Pike	open
Taqueria Guadalajara	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1181 Front Royal Pike	open
Tenderfix By Noah Schnapp	Quick service		170 Front Royal Pike	open
Texas Steakhouse & Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	120 Front Royal Pike	open
The Better Beer Store	Bar		3349 Valley Pike	open
The Greene Turtle Sports Bar & Grille	Bar		185 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Three Wives Distillery LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		933 Barley Ln	open
Throx Market Station	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1016 Millwood Pike	open
Umberto's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	170 Delco Plz	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	201 Maranto Manor Dr	open
Wok Zone	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Chinese · Asian	121 Kernstown Commons Blvd	open
Cadooley Llc	Coffee shop	Coffee	3343 Valley Pike Ste 500	closed
Clawdad's Seafood Boil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	170-3 Delco Plz	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	14	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	18	7	8	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	17	16	6	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	20	18	5	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	6	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	27	24	9	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	30	26	12	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	19	10	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	23	20	10	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	25	22	10	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	25	22	11	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	30	28	14	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	28	27	14	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	28	27	14	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	32	30	16	9	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	30	29	16	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	35	33	19	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	34	32	21	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	31	29	17	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	31	29	17	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	34	30	15	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	38	33	17	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	29	13	12	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22602. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.