BMIE Market 22603

Frederick County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,133 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,910 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,671 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,104 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,409 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±453 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$349,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	98.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	40 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22603
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+17.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+233.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+566.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	43 (range 39–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22603. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.4	69	40%	+27.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.6	56	35%	+19.5
Market Momentum Score	75.1	75	25%	+18.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,133	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	75,104	55	40%	+22.1
Households (ACS)	6,859	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	17.7	61	35%	+21.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.4	30	25%	+7.4
Population (ACS)	17,133	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	75,104	55	20%	+11.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	17.7	75	50%	+37.7
10-year restaurant growth	17.7	61	30%	+18.3
20-year restaurant growth	233.3	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (98)

By cuisine

American 15 · Coffee 10 · Asian 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Mexican 8 · Dessert 7 · Pizza 7 · Chinese 6 · Burgers 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Italian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Bakery 4 · Japanese 4 · Breakfast 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sushi 3 · BBQ 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Seafood 2 · Spanish / tapas 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 64 · Quick service 23 · Coffee shop 8 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 7 · Bar 7 · Café 6 · Casual dining 5 · Other 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Food truck 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
81 Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	360 Gateway Dr Ste 1	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	150 Crock Wells Mill Dr	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	140 Foxridge Ln	open
Backseat Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	104 Full House Dr	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1601 Martinsburg Pike	open
Blimpie	Quick service		1511 Martinsburg Pike	open
Bojangles	Restaurant (service type not stated)		130 Crock Wells Mill Dr	open
Bojangles	Restaurant (service type not stated)		191 Gateway Dr	open
Briedé Family Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		450 Green Spring Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1513 Martinsburg Pike	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks	Other	Sandwiches	1490 N Frederick Pike	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	1490 North Frederick Pike	open
Cheng's Asian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	161 Gateway Dr	open
Chengs Asian Cuisine (160 Rivendell Ct)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	160 Rivendell Ct	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	112 Market St	open
China Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	170 Rivendell Ct	open
China Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	257 Sunnyside Plaza Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	120 Merchant St	open
Classic Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	161 Gateway Dr Ste 1	open
Crumbl - Winchester	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	139 Market St Ste 1	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1601 Martinsburg Pike	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	1462 N Frederick Pike	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1571 Martinsburg Pike Exxon Gas Station	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	190 Crock Wells Mill Dr	open
Everest Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	419 Gateway Dr #1	open
Fizzle's BBQ Sauce	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	135 Oak Dr	open
Flor Blanca Restaurante Salvadoreño	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other)	1709 Berryville Pike #C	open
Fosters Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	419 Gateway Dr	open
Fox's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1709 Berryville Pike	open
Franklin's Smokin Barnyard	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	American	1912 Martinsburg Pike	open
Granny's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2294 Berryville Pike	open
Guan's Garden Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	156 Market St	open
Hmrajs Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2035 Northwestern Pike	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	180 Crock Wells Mill Dr	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	240 Rivendell Ct Ste. 3	open
Jin Zhou Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1852 Berryville Pike	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	885 Fox Dr	open
Kraft Heinz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		220 Park Center Dr	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		3430 Northwestern Pike	open
La Braza Breakfast Crush	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	170 Rivendell Ct Ste 7	open
La Braza Breakfast Crush	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	419 Gateway Dr #3	open
Las Trancas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	151 Market St	open
Ledo Pizza Winchester, VA Ledo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	419 Gateway Dr	open
Legend Asian Restaurant and BAR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Thai · Sushi · Asian	360 Gateway Dr	open
LILLY DELI	Quick service		1709 Berryville Pike	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	381 Gateway Dr Ste 1	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	240 Rivendell Ct	open
Los Toltecos Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	419 Gateway Dr #5	open
Main Street Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	151 Market St	open
Martins Bakery Starbucks	Coffee shop · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Bakery	160 Exeter Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	250 Rivendell Ct	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	111 Merchant St	open
Miller Milling Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		302 Park Center Dr	open
Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	120 Merchant St	open
Nino’s Pizzarama - Rt. 50	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2957 Northwestern Pike	open
Nuttin Fancy Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American	2765 Northwestern Pike	open
Oishii Sushi & Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	220 Faraday Plz	open
Pack's Cones n More Dairy Corner	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2580 Northwestern Turnpike	open
Packs Cones n More 522	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2021 N Frederick Pike	open
Packs Cones n More- Route 11	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	105 Full House Dr	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	117 Sunnyside Plaza Dr	open
Quiznos	Quick service		161 Gateway Dr	open
Red Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Japanese	420 Gateway Dr	open
Red Bud Elementary School	Restaurant (service type not stated)		250 First Woods Dr	open
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	110 Merchant St	open
Sakura	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	235 Market St	open
Schmidt Baking Depot Schmidt depot	Bakery	Bakery	475 McGhee Rd	open
Shady Lady Seafood	Food truck	Seafood	3548 N Frederick Pike	open
Skrimp Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	419 Gateway Dr	open
Slices Pizza Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 Market St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	171 Gateway Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	161 Gateway Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Pizza · Coffee	109 Market St	open
Steel Pony Stables & Inn	Bar	American		open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1462 N Frederick Pike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	154 Market Street Suite 6A-2	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	501 Wal Mart Dr	open
Sugar Shack Ice Cream at The Homestead Farm	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	2602 N Frederick Pike	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Mexican	125 Welltown Road	open
Taco Time TacoTime	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican · Chicken / wings	1490 N Frederick Pike	open
Taqueria Los 7 Hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Mexican · Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other) · Coffee	1709 Berryville Pike	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ · American	113 Market St	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1601 Martinsburg	open
The Cider House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2504 N Frederick Pike	open
Throx Brew Market & Grille	Bar		1518 Martinsburg Pike	open
Touch Of Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1361 N Frederick Pike	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Coffee	152 Market St	open
Ts Cafe Va-79 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		152 Market St	open
Venice Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1490 N Frederick Pike	open
Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	381 Gateway Dr	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	100 Getty Ln	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	501 Wal Mart Dr	open
Winchester Ciderworks	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		2504 N Frederick Pike	open
Winchester Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	1152 Martinsburg Pike	open
Z Kabob and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher	381 Gateway Dr Ste 7	open
Zoe's Pizza Of Winchester, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		419 Gateway Dr Ste 9	open
American Classic Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		419 Gateway Dr	closed
Pronto Express Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	231 Sunnyside Plaza Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	5	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	24	22	8	12	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	31	29	14	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	29	27	11	13	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	33	30	12	15	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	37	34	12	19	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	38	35	14	18	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	35	34	14	17	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	37	36	14	19	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	35	34	16	16	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	37	36	16	17	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	34	33	15	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	34	14	17	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	37	35	17	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	39	37	17	18	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	40	39	18	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	39	16	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	41	40	18	18	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22603. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.