BMIE Market 22624

Frederick County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,416 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±890 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±231 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,565 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	999 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,357 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,854 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±977 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$438,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,698 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22624
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2011–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.53) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22624. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2011–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.53, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.1	65	40%	+26.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.9	81	35%	+28.3
Market Momentum Score	55.6	56	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,416	54	40%	+21.7
Median household income (ACS)	104,375	84	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	1,010	50	20%	+9.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.3
Population (ACS)	3,416	54	20%	+10.9
Median household income (ACS)	104,375	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (10)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches	1530 Rest Church Rd	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1530 Rest Church Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	120 Business Blvd	open
Josie's Sweets	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4740 Martinsburg Pike Ste 2	open
Oldstone Truck Stop	Food truck		3425 Martinsburg Pike	open
Paladin Woolen Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		3416 Martinsburg Pike	open
Potato Sensations	Food truck		3381 Martinsburg Pike	open
Stateline Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4740 Martinsburg Pike	open
Taste Buds	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	4740 Martinsburg Pike	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Burgers	1530 Rest Church Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22624. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22656	2.9 mi	1	2015
25413	4.0 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.