BMIE Market 22663

Clarke County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±464 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,536 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	578 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,046 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81,307 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$378,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61,794 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2015 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2015 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 22663
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2011, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2020	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2000–2015 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22663. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2000–2015, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.9	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.5	82	35%	+28.5
Market Momentum Score	54.1	54	25%	+13.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,705	42	40%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	135,046	94	40%	+37.6
Households (ACS)	545	38	20%	+7.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.9	89	25%	+22.2
Population (ACS)	1,705	42	20%	+8.4
Median household income (ACS)	135,046	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (10)

By cuisine

Mexican 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Food truck 3 · Quick service 2 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Following Fizzle's BBQ/ Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	134 White Oak Rd	open
Freedom Funnel Cakes	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Dessert		open
Las costas de guerrero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2163 Fairfax Pike	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2151 Tasker Rd	open
Sabor Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	267 Double Tollgate Rd	open
Solorzano Latin Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2163 Fairfax Pike	open
Taqueria La Mexicana Taqueria La Mexicana	Food truck	Mexican	4774 Front Royal Pike	open
Taqueria La Mexicana	Food truck		3753 Stonewall Jackson Hwy	open
Twisted Oak Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		912 White Post Rd	open
Frontier Beef Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	14767 Lord Fairfax Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2007	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22663. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22646	3.6 mi	1	2016
22620	4.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.