BMIE Market 22920

Nelson County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±465 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,186 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,997 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,028 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,787 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$971 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±128 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$410,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,619 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	77.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	2 2015 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2015 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 22920
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2005 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2020	0 (range 0–2) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2005–2015 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22920. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2005–2015, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.2	62	40%	+24.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.0	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	75.0	75	25%	+18.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,608	55	40%	+22.1
Median household income (ACS)	88,028	71	40%	+28.5
Households (ACS)	1,667	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.5	90	25%	+22.5
Population (ACS)	3,608	55	20%	+11.0
Median household income (ACS)	88,028	71	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 8 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Brewery / taproom 5 · Bar 3 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Afton Mountain Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Batesville Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Blue Mountain Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	American	9519 Critzer Shop Rd	open
Bold Rock Hard Cider	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		1020 Rockfish Valley Highway , Afton , 22958, United States	open
Brewing Tree Beer Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		9278 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Cardinal Point Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9423 Batesville Rd	open
Coquito Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	190 Rockfish School Ln	open
Flying Fox Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		10368 Critzer Shop Rd	open
Hazy Mountain Vineyards and Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		240 Hazy Mountain Ln	open
King's Gourmet Popcorn	Dessert	Dessert	130 Afton Cir	open
Mama Jackie’s	Bakery	Bakery	1224 Avon Rd	open
Maren Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		9358 Critzer Shop Rd	open
Paulie's Pig Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	7376 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Royal Orchard	Restaurant (service type not stated)		501 Royal Orchard Dr	open
Silverback Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9374 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
The Blue Toad	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9278 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Trager Brothers Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	190 Rockfish School Ln	open
Valley Road Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		9264 Critzers Shop Rd	open
Veritas Vineyards and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		151 Veritas Ln	open
WildManDan Beercentric 1870 Farmhouse Rental & Brewery	Brewery / taproom		279 Avon Rd	open
Le Chic Picnic	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	27 Chapel Hollow Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22920. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.