BMIE Market 22932

Albemarle County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,148 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±817 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,664 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,488 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,129 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,545 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,664 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,819 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$548,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±60,222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	101.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22932
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 14–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	36 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22932. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.3	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.0	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	35.9	36	25%	+9.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,148	69	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	115,545	89	40%	+35.5
Households (ACS)	3,664	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.5	44	25%	+11.1
Population (ACS)	9,148	69	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	115,545	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Winery / distillery / taproom 8 · Bar 7 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar Botanical	Bar · Casual dining	Vegetarian	2025 Library Ave	open
Cakes by Rachel	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5853 Jarmans Gap Rd	open
Coconut Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1015 Heathercroft Ln	open
CroZeli Sandwich Shop Potbelly Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2025 Library Ave	open
Crozet Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2025 Library Ave	open
Crozet Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5794 Three Notch'd Rd	open
Cutie Pie Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6095 Jarmans Gap Rd	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1248 Crozet Ave	open
DelFosse Wine Shop	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		6767 Rockfish Gap Tpke	open
Fallen Tree Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		4593 Clark Rd	open
Fardowners Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	5773 The Square	open
Fidelis Farm & Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		6577 Jarmans Gap Rd	open
Fox Hollow Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	5804 Tabor St	open
Grace Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5273 Mt Juliet Farm	open
Green House Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1260 Crozet Ave	open
Grit Coffee, Crozet Grit Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1110 Old Trail Dr	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6115 Rockfish Gap Tpke	open
Mi Rancho Mexican Crozet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1015 Heathercroft Cir	open
MooThru Crozet - Pro Re Nata Brewery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6135 Rockfish Gap Tpke	open
Morsel Compass	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2025 Library Ave	open
Mudhouse Crozet Mudhouse Coffee Roasters	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	5793 The Square	open
Praha Bohemian Bakery and Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · European · Coffee	5778 Three Notch'd Rd	open
Pro Re Nata	Brewery / taproom		6135 Rockfish Gap Turnpike	open
Restoration Restaurant at Old Trail	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	5494 Golf Dr	open
Roseland Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		6640 Roseland Farm	open
Sal's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5752 Three Notch'd Rd	open
Sam's Hot Dog Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5786a 3 Notch'D Rd	open
Smoked Kitchen and Tap	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	2025 Library Ave	open
Starr Hill Brewery Starr Hill Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5391 Three Notch'd Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	375 Four Leaf Lane Suite 11A	open
The Appellation Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
The Inn at Stinson Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		4746 Sugar Hollow Rd	open
The Whistle Stop Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1200 Crozet Ave	open
The Yellow Mug	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1260 Crozet Ave	open
Three Notch'd Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5790 Three Notch'd Rd.	open
Traynor's Pub	Bar			open
White Hall Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		5282 Sugar Ridge Rd	open
Wyant's Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4696 Garth Rd	open
Yonder Hill Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6740 Yonder Hill Farm	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	17	7	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	16	8	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	16	9	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	20	7	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	16	4	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	5	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	5	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	17	5	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22932. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.