BMIE Market 22938

Nelson County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	884 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±289 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,444 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	701 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,571 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,359 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$365,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±131,040 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	36.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 1997 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 1997 detail (SIC1987) · by USPS ZIP 22938
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Projected restaurants, 5 years ahead	Not enough history to project
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22938. Not enough history for a projection.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	52.4	52	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.4	61	35%	+28.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	884	30	40%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	108,571	86	40%	+34.4
Households (ACS)	348	30	20%	+6.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.3	67	25%	+25.8
Population (ACS)	884	30	20%	+9.2
Median household income (ACS)	108,571	86	20%	+26.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (5)

By cuisine

no cuisine stated

By type

Bar 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 1

Name	Type	Address	Status
Brent Manor Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar	100 Brent Manor Ln	open
Devils Backbone Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar	80 Mosby Ln	open
Kelly's	Bar	5060 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Mountain & Vine Vineyards And Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom	500 Del Fosse Winery Ln	open
Mountain & Vine Vineyards and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	500 Delfosse Winery Ln	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22938. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22931	3.7 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.