BMIE Market 22958

Nelson County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,306 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,237 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,637 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,931 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,284 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,619 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$487,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,734 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22958
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	30.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22958. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.6	62	40%	+24.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.4	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	25.9	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,306	47	40%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,284	80	40%	+31.9
Households (ACS)	1,237	53	20%	+10.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.4	45	25%	+11.2
Population (ACS)	2,306	47	20%	+9.5
Median household income (ACS)	98,284	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Basic Necessities	Café · Specialty food shop · Bar	Coffee	2226 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Belties	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2884 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Black Bear Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	18 Pheasant Run	open
Blue Ridge Pig	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2198 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Bold Rock Nellysford Cidery	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1020 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Bold Rock Nellysford Cidery	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1020 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Chirios Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2777 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Don Lupe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	2815 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Hill Top Berry Farm Winery and Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2800 Berry Hill Rd	open
Iron & Ale At Wintergreen Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1354 Stoney Creek W	open
Kona Ice of Charlottesville Kona Ice	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert	Services Available In:	open
Market at Wintergreen Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	Wood Nettle Ln	open
Smoky's Black Bear Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	121 Blue Ridge Drive	open
Sweet Bliss Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2789 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Three Notch'd Craft Kitchen Three Notch'd Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		2461 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Trinacria restaurant and pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2842 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Vitos Pizza And Restaurant At Nellysfor	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2842 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open
Wild Wolf Brewing Company	Casual dining · Bar		2461 Rockfish Valley Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22958. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.