BMIE Market 22963

Fluvanna County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±863 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,401 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,489 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,259 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,702 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$327,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	124.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 22963
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.31) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22963. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.31, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.5	81	40%	+32.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.9	69	35%	+24.1
Market Momentum Score	65.7	66	25%	+16.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,896	79	40%	+31.4
Median household income (ACS)	104,259	84	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	6,594	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	35%	+17.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.5	74	25%	+18.6
Population (ACS)	16,896	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	104,259	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Affordable Massage Therapy Associates	Restaurant (service type not stated)		202 Turkeysag Trl Ste 5	open
Asian Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Coffee	265 Turkeysag Trail #103	open
Blue 53 Sports Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining		265 Turkeysag Trail	open
Broody Hen Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	290 Cunningham Meadows Dr	open
Cunningham Creek Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		3304 Ruritan Lake Rd	open
Cuppa Joe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	90 Joshua Ln	open
Dining at Lake Monticello	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	51 Bunker Blvd	open
Dogwood Restaurant @ Lake Monticello	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Burgers · Healthy / salads / bowls	10 Centre Ct	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	66 Joshua Ln	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	271 Turkeysag Trail	open
Eagles Nest Restaurant	Quick service		51 Bunker Blvd	open
El Vaquero Mexican Restaurant El Vaquero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	102 Joshua Ln	open
GIA at Lake Monticello	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	198 Turkeysag Trl	open
Golden China Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	264 Turkeysag Trail A	open
Ground Up Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	106 Crofton Plaza	open
Hometown Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	63 Market Street	open
I Love Bread	Bakery	Bakery	709 Justin Drive	open
Lakeside Restaurant & Takeout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	41 Ashlawn Blvd	open
Local Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	74 Joshua Ln	open
Panda Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	82 Joshua Ln	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	68 Heritage Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	264 Turkeysag Trail Unit C	open
Tacos Navarro	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	100 Crofton Plaza	open
Villa Nova's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	265 Turkeysag Trl	open
Wahoo BBQ Wahoo's Fish Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	10 Centre Ct	open
Two J's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 Thomas Jefferson Pkwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	15	10	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	18	12	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	17	10	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	8	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22963. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.