BMIE Market 22967

Nelson County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,413 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	816 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,956 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,359 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,897 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±77 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$255,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±111,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	97.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	2 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 22967
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2011, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2000–2016 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 22967. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2000–2016, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	56.7	57	40%	+22.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75.8	76	35%	+26.5
Market Momentum Score	60.6	61	25%	+15.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,413	48	40%	+19.3
Median household income (ACS)	87,337	71	40%	+28.2
Households (ACS)	816	46	20%	+9.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.3	79	25%	+19.8
Population (ACS)	2,413	48	20%	+9.7
Median household income (ACS)	87,337	71	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+34.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

American 2 · Pizza 1

By type

Bar 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Casual dining 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Toad Hard Cider	Brewery / taproom · Bar		462 Winery Ln	open
Bryant's Cider & Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		3224 E Branch Loop	open
Devils Backbone Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		200 Mosbys Run	open
Devil’s Knob Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	183 Clubhouse Dr	open
Fire and Frost	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	121 Blue Ridge Dr	open
Heartland Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		462 Winery Ln	open
The Copper Mine Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		39 Mountain Inn Loop	open
The Edge	Bar		39 Mountain Inn Loop	open
Wintergreen Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		462 Winery Ln	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2008	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 22967. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
22976	4.0 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.