BMIE Market 23059

Hanover County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	42,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,441 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,784 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±773 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,919 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	12,235 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$157,897 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,284 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±94 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$593,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,986 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	55 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23059
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+103.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,650.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	58 (range 53–64) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	96 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23059. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	95.6	96	40%	+38.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.1	71	35%	+24.9
Market Momentum Score	63.2	63	25%	+15.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 96 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	42,522	95	40%	+38.0
Median household income (ACS)	157,897	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	15,784	94	20%	+18.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.8	50	35%	+17.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.9	61	25%	+15.2
Population (ACS)	42,522	95	20%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	157,897	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.8	62	50%	+31.1
10-year restaurant growth	5.8	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	103.7	85	20%	+17.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (102)

By cuisine

American 19 · Pizza 11 · Sandwiches 11 · Burgers 9 · Coffee 9 · Asian 8 · Chicken / wings 6 · Bakery 5 · Italian 5 · Mexican 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Japanese 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Sushi 3 · Chinese 2 · Indian 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Steakhouse 2 · BBQ 1 · Brazilian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Quick service 21 · Bar 13 · Casual dining 11 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Alarm 5 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1070 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Alohahola	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Asian	1080 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Applebee's Grill + Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10151 Brook Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10267 Washington Hwy	open
Aw Shucks Country Store	Bar		6100 Pouncey Tract Rd	open
Bkv	Bar		11413 River Run Dr	open
Bottoms Up Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11389 Nuckols Rd	open
Bourbon Street Grill	Quick service		10101 Brook Rd Ste 216	open
Braum's Ice Cream & Dairy Stores	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11385 Nuckols Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	1090 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Casa Grande	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10120 Brook Rd	open
CAVA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	9964 Brook Rd	open
Cheeburger Cheeburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11363 Nuckols Rd	open
Chen's Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	11361 Nuckols Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	10176 Brook Rd	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9950 Brook Road	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5300 Wyndham Forest Dr	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1070 Virginia Center Pkwy Ste 101	open
Cinna Bistro	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	10101 Brook Rd	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9982 Brook Rd,	open
Crave Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10124 Brook Rd	open
Dairy Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12020 Wyndham Lake Dr	open
Debbies Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13155 Mountain Rd	open
Domoishi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1080 Virginia Center Pkwy Ste 119	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1070 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	1071 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Four Brothers Bistro & Grill.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1080 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
G&r Pizza Restaurant, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10118 Brook Rd	open
Gino's Ristorante Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	10118 Brook Rd	open
Great Steak	Other	Sandwiches	10101 Brook Rd, Ste 256	open
Hangry Pickle	Food truck		11413 Mill Rd	open
Hawks Nest Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		15201 Ashland Rd	open
Hill City Chop House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10099 Brook Rd	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10151 Brook Road	open
Intermission Beer Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		10089 Brook Rd	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	9950 Brook Road	open
James River Cellars Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11008 Washington Hwy	open
Jat International	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10101 Brook Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11321 Nuckols Rd Ste A	open
Kitchen33 and Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · American	13155 Mountain Rd	open
La Vita E' Bella Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	11363 Nuckols Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1070 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	11311 Nuckols Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	10000 Brook Rd	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	5466 Wyndham Forest Dr	open
O'charley's Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9990 Brook Rd	open
Panda Express Panda Express	Quick service		10282 Washington Hwy	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop	Coffee	11350 Nuckols Rd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	9960 Brook Road	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9853 Brook Rd Ste 101	open
Pho Number 1 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10073 Brook Rd	open
Pho Que Huong	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	10073 Brook Rd	open
Pitsa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza · Middle Eastern	11321 Nuckols Rd	open
Pitsa.pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Asian	1080 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	11385 Nuckols Rd Henrico	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10100 Brook Rd Henrico	open
Pizzaro Flamed Baked Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9966 Brook Rd	open
Plaza Azteca Glen Allen Plaza Azteca, Methuen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	10099 Brook Rd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	10213 Washington Hwy	open
Q Barbeque Q Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1070 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	9853 Brook Rd	open
Raise the Roost	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6100 Pouncey Tract Rd	open
Raising Cane's Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	10093 Brook Road	open
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	10067 Brook Rd	open
Rico's Mexican Grill Rico's Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11321 Nuckols Rd	open
Rio Brazil Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Steakhouse · Latin American (other)	10412 Washington Hwy	open
Roda Japan House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	1080 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Samurai Sushi Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11391 Nuckols Rd Ste A	open
Sandano's Italian Sub Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	11389-B Nuckols Rd	open
Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11390 Nuckols Rd	open
Sedona Taphouse Sedona Taphouse	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5312 Wyndham Forest Dr	open
Shady Grove Coffeehouse	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	11105 Cauthorne Rd	open
Spice Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	1090 Virginia Center Pkwy #102	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Breakfast	11332 Nuckols Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	10100 Brook Rd (Target Glen Allen T-10, 19)	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Bakery · Asian	10150 Brook Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1091 Virginia Center Parkway	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	11347 Nuckols Rd Ste 240	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1090 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Sumo Sushi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1090 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	11800 W Broad St #2140	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	10075 J.E.B. Stuart Pkwy	open
Thai Top Ten	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	9986 Brook Rd	open
The Boat House At Rockets Landing	Bar	American		open
The Glen Restaurant	Buffet · Bar · Casual dining		1000 Virginia Center Pkwy	open
The Pot Jamaican Take out restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	10101 Brook Rd	open
The Trending Tikka Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	Inside ZuZu's PITSA, 11321 Nuckols Rd Unit 12b	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	11321 C Nuckols Road	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Coffee	9972 Brook Road	open
True Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1090 Virginia Center Pkwy Ste 102	open
Twin Hickory Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	11351 Nuckols Rd	open
Tysons Chicken Processing Plant.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings	13264 Mountain Rd	open
Vampire Penguin	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	11345 Nuckols Rd	open
Villa Fresh Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10101 Brook Rd	open
Vinny's Italian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	10221 Washington Hwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	10177 Brook Road	open
Zaxby's Chicken Fingers & Buffalo Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	11350 Nuckols Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	5400 Wyndham Forest Dr	open
ZERO MAX	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4709 Hearthstone Rd	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10097 Brook Rd	closed
Donatos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10067 Brook Rd	closed
P A Glen Allen Inc	Casual dining		10099 Brook Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	7	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	20	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	29	27	11	10	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	24	22	10	8	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	30	27	13	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	40	39	19	14	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	43	41	21	15	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	42	40	19	16	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	42	41	19	16	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	46	45	21	17	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	45	44	20	18	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	51	48	21	19	8	—	NAICS2012
2013	55	52	22	23	7	—	NAICS2012
2014	58	54	26	21	7	—	NAICS2012
2015	51	47	20	21	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	54	46	23	18	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	58	52	23	21	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	57	52	22	24	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	59	54	25	23	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	57	52	23	23	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	59	56	27	20	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	60	57	25	22	9	—	NAICS2022
2023	57	55	23	23	9	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23059. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23060	3.7 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.