BMIE Market 23063

Goochland County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,164 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±783 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,875 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,278 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,008 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$363,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,501 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	102.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23063
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+500.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23063. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.1	63	40%	+25.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.9	61	35%	+21.3
Market Momentum Score	84.3	84	25%	+21.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,164	64	40%	+25.5
Median household income (ACS)	81,553	64	40%	+25.7
Households (ACS)	1,875	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.5	39	25%	+9.6
Population (ACS)	6,164	64	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	81,553	64	20%	+12.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	500	99	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 4 · Italian 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bella Sicilia Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2913 River Rd W	open
Byrd Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		2442 Davis Mill Rd	open
Chef Lee Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2720 Fairground Rd	open
Chile Verde Mexican Restaurant Goochland	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1940 Sandy Hook Rd Ste D	open
China King Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1940 Sandy Hook Rd Unit C	open
Courthouse Market and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2962 River Rd W	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	2738 Fairground Road	open
Eccoti Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European · Italian	1940 Sandy Hook Rd Unit A	open
Elk Island Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5759 River Rd W	open
Goochland Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2966 River Rd W	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Breakfast · American	1945 Sandy Hook Rd	open
Lickinghole Creek Craft Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		4100 Knolls Point Dr	open
Los Panchos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1940-D Sandy Hook Rd	open
Nadolski's Fine Meat & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2913 River Rd W	open
Rocco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1930 Sandy Hook Rd	open
Sipping Sunshine Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	2958 River Rd W	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2732 Fairground Road UNIT D	open
White Hawk Music Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1940 Sandy Hook Rd Ste A	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	5	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23063. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.