BMIE Market 23072

Gloucester County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,328 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,052 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,034 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,541 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,103 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,559 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,879 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,098 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$311,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,824 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23072
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+21.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+142.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23072. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.6	67	40%	+26.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.0	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	60.2	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,328	75	40%	+29.9
Median household income (ACS)	74,559	54	40%	+21.8
Households (ACS)	5,034	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	35%	+17.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.8	61	25%	+15.3
Population (ACS)	13,328	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	74,559	54	20%	+10.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	6.3	51	30%	+15.2
20-year restaurant growth	21.4	47	20%	+9.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Seafood 4 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bubba's Shrimp Shack Bubba's Shrimp Shack Gloucester-Hayes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4900 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
Doodles Donuts and Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Coffee	4744 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
Dough Haus - Gloucester	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	6824 Colemans Crossing Ave	open
Fiorello Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4938 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Franco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7088 Hayes Shopping Ctr	open
Goodstein Tavern	Bar		6473 Quail Hollow Dr	open
Hana Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2274 York Crossing Dr	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		2398 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Hong Kong Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2328 York Crossing Dr	open
IDK Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4329 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
JB's Subs & Grub	Other	Sandwiches	2357 York Crossing Dr	open
Juan's Mexican Cafe and Cantina Juan's Mexican Cafe and Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2310 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2413 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Mobjack Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood	5036 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
MoonFood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		7152 Cooks View Ln	open
On the Flip Side	Food truck · Quick service · Catering		Various	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4766 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Sals Sicilian Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2520 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
Shells Unlimited	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	9809 Ditch Bank Rd	open
Srb Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2513 Kings Creek Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7254 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3019 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
Sunrise Donuts And Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	4744 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2391 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
Tacos Vámonos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7088 Hayes Shopping Ct	open
That Damn Mary Brewing	Brewery / taproom		5036B George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
The Office Bar and Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	4115 S George Washington Mem Hwy	open
Tony & Milena's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2364 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open
VA Blue Crab Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	6766 Fields Landing Rd	open
Wendy's	Quick service		3022 George Washington Memorial Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	12	3	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	14	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	17	7	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	3	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	6	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	6	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	4	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23072. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23062	3.8 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.