BMIE Market 23103

Goochland County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,922 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±666 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±292 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,634 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,998 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$145,234 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,942 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	56.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$990 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±812 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$611,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,048 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23103
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23103. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.7	78	40%	+31.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	80.9	81	35%	+28.3
Market Momentum Score	48.3	48	25%	+12.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,922	65	40%	+26.1
Median household income (ACS)	145,234	96	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	2,923	67	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.6	66	25%	+16.6
Population (ACS)	6,922	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	145,234	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 4 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7 Lady Vineyards	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		1500 Manakin Rd	open
Bartizan Development Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1500 Manakin Rd	open
Enzo's Italian Chop House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	36 Broad St Rd	open
JJ's Seafood Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Seafood · Sandwiches	1606 Hockett Rd	open
Lola's Farmhouse Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French	1840 Manakin Rd	open
Masalawheelsrva	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Indian	68 Broad St Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	22 Broad Street	open
Red Oak Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1601 Hockett Rd	open
Satterwhite's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	116 Broad St Rd	open
Sports Page Bar and Grille Goochland	Casual dining · Bar		36 Broad St Rd	open
Sunset Grill Sunset Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1601 Hockett Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	26 Broad Street Rd	open
The Rumbleseat Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12912 Plaza Dr	open
Yu's China Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	32 Broad St Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23103. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23039	4.3 mi	1	2010
23129	4.8 mi	3	2017

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.