BMIE Market 23116

Hanover County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,466 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,236 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±505 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	27,228 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,796 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$141,711 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,962 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$433,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,391 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	55.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23116
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+24.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+350.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	38 (range 34–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.52) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23116. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.52, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	92.4	92	40%	+37.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78.1	78	35%	+27.3
Market Momentum Score	72.6	73	25%	+18.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,188	91	40%	+36.5
Median household income (ACS)	141,711	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	12,236	90	20%	+17.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	24.1	66	35%	+23.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.5	70	25%	+17.6
Population (ACS)	34,188	91	20%	+18.3
Median household income (ACS)	141,711	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	24.1	66	30%	+19.9
20-year restaurant growth	350	97	20%	+19.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (66)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 8 · Asian 6 · Italian 6 · Pizza 6 · Bakery 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Chinese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Seafood 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 12 · Bar 7 · Café 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antonios Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7610 Left Flank Rd	open
Bell Cafe	Café	Coffee	8319 Bell Creek Rd Ste B	open
Bell Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	8319 Bell Creek Rd	open
Big Bait For Fish, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9357 Atlee Rd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	9330 Atlee Rd	open
Brunetti Express 301	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	9167 Atlee Rd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	8309 Bell Creek Rd	open
Charred Hanover	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	9325 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Chen's Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7610 Left Flank Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	9080 Times Dispatch Blvd	open
China Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9157 Atlee Rd B	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9502 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	9178 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Cool Concessions	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10247 Buckeye Rd	open
Cousins Subs	Quick service		9033 Dewitt Dr	open
Cowhill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	9502 Chamberlayne Rd Ste 15	open
Don Pedro 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9502 Chamberlayne Rd #29	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	8257 Meadowbridge Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	9225 Atlee Rd	open
Emerson's Bar And Grill	Casual dining · Bar		9019 Craney Island Rd	open
Fuxing Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7610 Left Flank Rd	open
Game Day Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	8111 Judith Ln	open
Gelati Celesti Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9357 Atlee Rd Ste 1105	open
Giovanni's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	9502 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Hanover Seafood Mart	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9596 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	9325 Chamberlayne Road Suite A150	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	9325 Chamberlayne Road, Suite A150	open
Just Desserts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9468 Crescent View Dr	open
Kalico Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8003 Studley Rd	open
Kelleher's Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9281 Sentry Station Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	7421 Pole Green Rd	open
Lidia's Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	9375 Atlee Rd	open
Little Bean Coffee Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8260 Atlee Rd	open
Marty's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9357 Atlee Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9145 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Mimmo's Italian Restaurant & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	8319 Bell Creek Rd K	open
Nacho Mamas Bell Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7610 Left Flank Rd Ste 100	open
Pad Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	8460 Meadowbridge Rd	open
Pasta House Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	8196 Atlee Rd	open
Pizza & Beer of Richmond - Hanover	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · American	9325 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Pop's Old Fashioned Kettle Corn & Lemonade	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	7224 Minie Ball Ave	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	9177 Atlee Rd	open
Red Rooster Country Store	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	9582 Chamberlayne Rd #4011	open
Richmond Verginia USA.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza		open
Salty Pig at Sleepy Fox Distillery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	9502 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Sam's Hot Dog Stand Hot Dog on a Stick	Quick service	Hot dogs · BBQ	9502 Chamberlayne Rd #12	open
Sports Page Bar & Grill Sports Page Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		8319 Bell Creek Rd N	open
Sptwo Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8319 Bell Creek Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	8300 Bell Creek Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9329 Chamberlayne Road	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9351 Atlee Rd	open
Stevi B's Pizza Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9158 Atlee Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8319 Bell Creek Rd Suite G	open
Sweetly Smitten	Bakery	Bakery	8324 Bell Creek Rd Ste 700	open
Terra di Siena USA Tuscan Salumeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		8505 Bell Creek Rd	open
The Local Cup	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9502 Chamberlayne Rd	open
The Patron Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	7610 Left Flank Rd	open
Third Base Grill Hanover	Bar		9502 Chamberlayne Rd #22	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	9363 Atlee Road	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	9351 Atlee Rd	open
Williams Bakery Williams Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	9502 Chamberlayne Rd	open
Winsmith Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		Winsmith Dr	open
Wong's Tacos - Hanover Wong’s Tacos - Short Pump	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	9206 Rutlandshire Dr	open
Woody’s Soft Serve and More	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	8436 Rainey Dr	open
Zheng Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9363 Atlee Rd	open
Farmers Johnson's Country	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7610 Left Flank Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	22	18	9	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	23	20	8	11	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	17	6	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	21	18	9	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	29	23	10	10	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	34	29	13	12	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	37	31	14	14	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	34	29	13	13	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	37	30	14	12	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	35	29	15	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	37	29	15	13	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	37	30	16	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	39	33	16	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	41	34	16	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	38	32	15	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	29	13	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	34	15	16	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	42	36	16	17	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23116. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.