BMIE Market 23120

Chesterfield County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,586 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,532 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±557 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,971 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,935 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$158,667 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,176 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,623 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$569,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,980 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	63.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23120
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2011, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2009 → 2019, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2003–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23120. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2003–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.6	86	40%	+34.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92.1	92	35%	+32.2
Market Momentum Score	95.0	95	25%	+23.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,586	79	40%	+31.7
Median household income (ACS)	158,667	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	5,532	76	20%	+15.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.3	99	25%	+24.7
Population (ACS)	17,586	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	158,667	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (6)

By cuisine

Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Hidden Wit Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		21110 Hull Street Rd	open
Jimer's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	20800 Hull Street Rd	open
Katerco Coffee + More	Coffee shop	Coffee	7601 Magnolia Green Pkwy	open
Salsas Don Sebastian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex		open
Scoop's Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert		open
The Little Beagle Sourdough Bakery LLC	Bakery	Bakery	17231 Silver Maple Terrace	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2019	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23120. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.