BMIE Market 23150

Henrico County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,544 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,434 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,266 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±489 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,045 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,264 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,411 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,145 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$283,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,921 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	29.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23150
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23150. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.0	69	40%	+27.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.3	51	35%	+17.9
Market Momentum Score	16.4	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,544	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	79,050	61	40%	+24.4
Households (ACS)	5,266	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	35%	+2.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.4	87	25%	+21.7
Population (ACS)	12,544	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	79,050	61	20%	+12.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	50%	+3.3
10-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	30%	+2.2
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 9 · Mexican 5 · Latin American (other) 4 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1607 Bistro & Bar	Bar	American	445 International Centre Dr	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5220 W Williamsburg Rd W Williamsburg Rd & Oakleys Ln	open
Backwoodz BBQ Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	400 W Williamsburg Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5217 Williamsburg Rd	open
Clarion	Bar		5203 Williamsburg Rd	open
Cobblestone Cellars, Inc.	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5401 Lewis Rd	open
Dunkin Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3990 E Williamsburg Rd	open
El Torito Mexican Restaurant and Grill El Torito	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	5600 Williamsburg Rd	open
Fat Boy's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2 W Williamsburg Rd	open
Garcia Brothers Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5213 Williamsburg Rd	open
Golden Skillet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	345 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Hillbilly Red's Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	353 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Jersey Girl's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3990 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Lovell's 31 Gourmet Bread Pudding	Dessert	Dessert	P. O. Box 504	open
Maya's Latin Kitchen - Sandston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	353 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Mexico Restaurant Mexico Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5213 Williamsburg Rd	open
Mk Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5203 Williamsburg Rd	open
Roberto Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5550 Williamsburg Rd	open
Roma Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	325 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Sandston Bistro and Shakes	Dessert	Burgers · Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	18 E Williamsburg Rd	open
Taqueria San Martin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5710 Williamsburg Rd	open
Taylor's Sweets and Treats	Café · Dessert	Dessert · Coffee	9 W Williamsburg Rd	open
The Patron Mexican Restaurant & Cantina The Patron Mexican Restaurant & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5990 Audubon Dr	open
The Rollin Smokehouse - Mobile	Food truck		2 W Williamsburg Rd	open
The Vault Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	400 W Williamsburg Rd	open
TUTTI FRUTTI'S GIFT BASKETS	Dessert		111 W Williamsburg Rd	open
Ty's Internet Cafe	Café	Coffee	9 W Williamsburg Rd	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	5414 Williamsburg Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	15	8	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	14	7	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23150. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23250	3.8 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.