BMIE Market 23175

Middlesex County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,053 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±383 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	957 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±168 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,907 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,285 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$66,858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,077 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	61.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$924 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$369,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,858 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23175
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	26.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.25) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23175. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.25, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.6	45	40%	+17.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.9	45	35%	+15.7
Market Momentum Score	83.5	83	25%	+20.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,053	45	40%	+18.1
Median household income (ACS)	66,858	42	40%	+16.8
Households (ACS)	957	49	20%	+9.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	43.8	12	25%	+3.0
Population (ACS)	2,053	45	20%	+9.1
Median household income (ACS)	66,858	42	20%	+8.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	80	94	50%	+47.0
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	80	77	20%	+15.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 7 · Seafood 5 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Oak Cafe	Café · Quick service · Coffee shop	Coffee	2761 Flats Rd	open
Big Oak Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	2761 Old Virginia St	open
Bigoak Country Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2761 Old Virginia St	open
Bubba's Shrimp Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	240 Virginia St	open
Colonial Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	50 Watling St	open
Cool Beans cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	51 Cross St	open
Dockside NY Deli & Waterfront Restaurant	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	25 Cross St	open
Grounded	Coffee shop	Coffee	51 Cross St	open
Half Shell Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		250 Virginia St	open
Little Jimmy’s Poolside Café	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café	Coffee · American	679 Browns Ln	open
Mi Jalisco Family Mexican Restaurant Mi Jalisco Family Mexican Restaurant - Urbanna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5437 Old Virginia St	open
Poppy's Sweet Treats	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4859 Old Virginia St	open
Portside Grill on Urbanna Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Cross St	open
Small Town Burger Urbanna	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	241 Virginia St	open
Something Different Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	213 Virginia St	open
The Wooden Pickle Cafe	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Coffee	280 Virginia St	open
Tony walton seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4450 Old Virginia St	open
Urbanna Pearl Oyster Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	161 Cross St	open
Virginia Cafe,urbann,va	Café	Coffee · American	Virginia St	open
Virginia Street Cafe	Casual dining	American · Seafood	201 Virginia St	open
Walton Seafood, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5327 Old Virginia St	open
Where The Sidewalk Ends	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	280 Virginia St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	6	—	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23175. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23032	3.2 mi	—
23180	3.3 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.