BMIE Market 23181

King William County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,565 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±451 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,304 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±190 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,426 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,301 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,699 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,650 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,184 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±273 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$290,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32,731 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	65.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23181
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 11–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23181. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.7	69	40%	+27.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.5	58	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	70.6	71	25%	+17.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,565	62	40%	+24.9
Median household income (ACS)	95,699	78	40%	+31.2
Households (ACS)	2,304	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.6	33	25%	+8.4
Population (ACS)	5,565	62	20%	+12.4
Median household income (ACS)	95,699	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Seafood 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 6 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Kirklands Snack Shack	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14th St at F St	open
A&A Confections	Bakery	Bakery	516 Main St	open
Anna's Italian Restaurant - West Point	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3040 King William Ave	open
Blue Crab Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	620 Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	535 14th St	open
Captain Johnny's Crab House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	8275 Kentwood Ave	open
El Ranchero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3182 King William Ave	open
Family Traditions	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	714 Main St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	323 14 Th St	open
Hungry Hungry Arrow	Food truck · Catering		West Point, VA	open
Kiss my ice eeee	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1227 Kirby St	open
Lovell's Place	Casual dining · Bar		3184 King William Ave	open
Lucano's Pasta Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	18950 Motel Dr	open
Mattapony Reserve	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar	Healthy / salads / bowls	1581 Mattaponi Reservation Cir	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	432 14th Street	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	416 14th Street King William	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	416 14th St	open
The Farmer's Daughter	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18950 Motel Dr	open
The Pie Lady and Company	Café · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	907 Main St	open
Three Rivers Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	718 7th St	open
Tony and Georges Seafood Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Italian · American	2880 King William Ave	open
Top's China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	100 Winters St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23181. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.