BMIE Market 23314

Isle of Wight County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,099 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±679 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,991 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,919 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,029 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,960 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,742 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$409,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,733 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23314
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+800.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,700.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23314. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.9	76	40%	+30.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.2	66	35%	+23.2
Market Momentum Score	76.2	76	25%	+19.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,099	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	104,029	83	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	3,903	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.8	43	25%	+10.8
Population (ACS)	10,099	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	104,029	83	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	800	99	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 6 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Seafood 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 4 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
54 Beans	Café	Coffee	13478 Carrollton Blvd	open
A1 SEAFOOD & PHO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Seafood	13478 Carrollton Blvd	open
AJ Gators Carrollton	Bar		13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
Aloha Cravings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Casual dining	American	13478 Carrollton Blvd N	open
Bdf Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21088 Marina Rd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	13549 Carrollton Blvd	open
Bubba-N-Frank's Bubba-N-Frank's Smokehouse BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	15149 Carrollton Blvd	open
Captain Chuck-A-Muck's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	21088 Marina Rd	open
Cone Slingers	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	15141-D Carrollton Blvd	open
Dock of the Bay II	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	13162 Carrollton Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	13440 Carrollton Blvd	open
Fatboy's Grill & Steamshack	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	15042 Carrollton Blvd	open
Jai Shri Krishna Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
La Parilla Mexican Grill La Parrilla Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
Mama Mia Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13478 Carrollton Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		13461 Rockfish Way	open
Napoli E Ristorante Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
Q's Quisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13478 Carrollton Blvd R	open
Sakana Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
Shanghai Restaurant \| Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13478 Carrollton Blvd	open
Si Senor 2	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	13478 Carrollton Blvd C	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13450 Carrollton Blvd.	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	13478 Carrollton Blvd Suite 1	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	13609 Carrollton Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	22449 Spadea Wy	open
Amanda's Limited	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13478 Carrollton Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23314. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23304	3.7 mi	1	1994
23433	3.7 mi	3	2019
23436	4.6 mi	3	2018

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.