BMIE Market 23430

Isle of Wight County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±708 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,537 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±342 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,281 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,104 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,065 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,840 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,163 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±119 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$367,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,430 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	104.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23430
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	36 (range 32–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.2 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23430. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.7	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.1	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	72.5	72	25%	+18.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,109	81	40%	+32.3
Median household income (ACS)	104,065	83	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	7,537	81	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.7	50	25%	+12.6
Population (ACS)	19,109	81	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	104,065	83	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (55)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 8 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Asian 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 10 · Bar 9 · Café 6 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anna's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1810 S Church St	open
B/O Expressions . . .	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 Pinewood Dr	open
Blue Sky Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		17466 Benns Church Blvd	open
Breezy Hill Meadworks	Winery / distillery / taproom		15981 Breezy Hill Ln	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1228 Smithfield Plaza	open
Busy Nothings Coffee Co	Coffee shop	Coffee	223 Main St	open
C Caldwell Properties Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		112 Main St	open
Coffee Cube Smithfield	Coffee shop	Coffee	1604 S Church St	open
Creekside Landing	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		600 Cypress Creek Pkwy	open
Crossroads Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6151 Old Stage Hwy	open
Cure Coffeehouse Cure Coffeehouse	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	113 N Church St	open
Darden’s Country Store - Outpost	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6143 Old Stage Hwy	open
DOC'S Seafood Wakefield	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1402 Church St S	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1933 S Church St.	open
Farmer's Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	13416 Benns Church Blvd	open
Feel Good Fuel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1807 S Church St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1909 S Church St	open
Hunan Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1925 S Church St	open
Jalapenos Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13432 Benns Church Blvd	open
La cabaña Mexican Cuisine	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		13500 Benns Church Blvd	open
Lunch Thyme Street Kitchen	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	16034 Scotts Factory Rd	open
Main Street Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	837 W Main St	open
Main Street Restaurant	Casual dining	American	837 W Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1811 S Church St	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1809 s church st	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1226 Smithfield Plaza Isle Of Wight	open
Q Daddy's Pitmaster BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1007 S Church St	open
Ringo's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1200 S Church St	open
Sal's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13424 Benns Church Blvd	open
Sista's Cafe	Café	Coffee	13416 Benns Church Blvd	open
Smallcakes Smithfield	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	13420 Benns Church Blvd	open
Smithfield	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Smithfield Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		111 Commerce St	open
Smithfield Gourmet Cafe and Bakery	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	218 Main St	open
Smithfield Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches · Dessert	208 Main St	open
Smithfield Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	415 S Church St	open
Smithfield Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		117 N Church St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1282 Smithfield Plaza	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1205 Benns Church Blvd	open
SummerWind Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		71 Eagle Nest Ln	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1294 Benns Church Blvd	open
Tea-Tonic Tearoom	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	218 Main St	open
The Cockeyed Rooster Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	1268 Benns Church Blvd	open
The Cookie Jar	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	15394 Carroll Bridge Rd	open
The Fiddlin’ Pig	Bar	British / Irish pub food	100 Main St	open
The Oak & Ivy Taphouse	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		803 S Church St	open
The Peanut Shop	Dessert		217 Main St	open
The Railroad Station Pub	Bar			open
Tokyo Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai · Japanese	13466 Benns Church Blvd	open
Tops China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1209 Benns Church Blvd	open
Venlo on the James	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Gatling Pointe North	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1201 Benns Church Blvd.	open
Wharf Hill Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		25 Main St	open
William Rand Tavern	Bar	Breakfast	112 Main St	open
Yummaries Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	213 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	23	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	22	21	8	11	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	21	19	9	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	24	24	10	11	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	8	13	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	27	25	8	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	23	22	8	13	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	27	26	9	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	24	22	8	13	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	25	24	10	12	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	25	24	12	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	26	11	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	25	24	9	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	24	23	11	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	24	23	13	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	21	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	22	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	20	18	10	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	21	11	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	25	13	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	24	12	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	25	12	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	30	27	12	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	35	31	15	14	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	30	14	14	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23430. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
23304	4.9 mi	1	1994

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.