BMIE Market 23692
York County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 19,301 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±997 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 7,651 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 18,846 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,824 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $109,066 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,837 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $417,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,933 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 19.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 39 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23692 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 17.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +5.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +77.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 37 (range 32–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23692. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 82.9 | 83 | 40% | +33.2 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 60.1 | 60 | 35% | +21.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 58.2 | 58 | 25% | +14.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 19,301 | 81 | 40% | +32.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 109,066 | 86 | 40% | +34.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 7,651 | 81 | 20% | +16.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.4 | 50 | 35% | +17.5 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 20.2 | 37 | 25% | +9.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 19,301 | 81 | 20% | +16.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 109,066 | 86 | 20% | +17.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 8.3 | 66 | 50% | +32.8 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 5.4 | 50 | 30% | +15.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 30 | 52 | 20% | +10.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (69)
By cuisine
American 14 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 6 · Burgers 4 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Mexican 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Seafood 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Caribbean 2 · Dessert 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 45 · Quick service 19 · Bar 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Dessert 6 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Amigos Mexican Restaurant 3 Amigos Centerville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 100 Market St | open |
| Arby's Arby's | Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 8000 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Asahi Japanese and Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Chinese · Asian | 121 Grafton Station Ln | open |
| Awesome Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4336 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| Bay Haven Grille | Casual dining · Bar | 6500 George Washington Mem Hwy Ste A | open | |
| Beach Street Bar and Smokehouse | Bar | BBQ · American | 102 Beach Rd | open |
| Beachcomber Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 8811 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Bill's Seafood House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 2831 Denbigh Blvd | open |
| Blackbeard's Point Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 204 York Ln | open | |
| Blackbird Brewery Yorktown | Brewery / taproom | open | ||
| Bojangles' Bojangles | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 8017 George Washington Hwy | open |
| Bubba's Shrimp Shack Grafton | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 5336 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Chester's Chicken | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 7305 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | 5600 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| China Ocean | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 8100 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Cinco De Mayo Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 121 Grafton Station Ln A | open |
| Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 5704 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Dare Deli & Steamhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service · Brewery / taproom · Bar | Sandwiches · American | 800 Dare Rd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 135 Grafton Station Ln Ste D | open |
| Dragon China Restaurant, Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4508 George Washington Mem Hwy Ste F | open | |
| Dunkin Donuts Yorktown | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4101 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| Dunkin' | Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee | 5026 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 6605 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Georges Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 5704 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Gus's New York Pizza Gus's New York Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 6500 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Hardee's Hardee's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5408 George Washington Hy | open |
| Hong Kong Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4322 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| IHOP IHOP | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Breakfast | 5518 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| islsnack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 7201 George Washington Memorial Hwy, 1BO | open |
| islsnack | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 7201 George Washington Memorial Hwy, 1BO | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 4508 George Washington Memorial Hwy Suite G | open |
| Joe & Mimma's Italian Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 5742 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| KFC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 4350 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Main Moon Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 6500 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8135 George Washington Mem Hwy Unit 5 | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 8129 Geo Washngtn Hwy | open |
| Med Meals 4 You | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 4336 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| One Girl Desserts & Pastries | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 7816 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4740 george washington mem hwy | open |
| Pelican's SnoBalls Pelican's SnoBalls- Jax Beach | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 5519 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Persnickety Crane Cafe | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 4740 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Pho diner vietnamese cuisine | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 8135 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 8100 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Plaza Azteca Plaza Azteca, Methuen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 5922 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Pop's Drive In | Casual dining | American | 6555 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Pu Food TV | Bar | American | 6401 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Shorty's Diner - Yorktown | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 6500 George Washington Memorial Hwy A | open |
| Smokin' Joe's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 5619 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Snozone | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 5519 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Quick service · Café | Coffee | 4433-A George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 8135 George Washington Memorial Hwy A | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 6500 George Washington Mem Hwy (Farm F, Resh - Grafton #404) | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 5338 Geo Washington Mem Hwy Unit J | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 411 Carrington Ln | open |
| sweetFrog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 4360 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 5230 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Thai Siam | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai | 5318 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| The Chipper Usa | Restaurant (service type not stated) | British / Irish pub food | 5619 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| The Cowboy Sports Grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 6401 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| The Kitchen, from the Virginia Beer Co. | Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 7120 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open | |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 8135 George Washington Memorial Highway | open |
| Tuscany's Coffee House, L.l.c. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 322 Freedom Blvd | open | |
| Uncle B's Pizza Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5214 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Vinny’s Pizza & Pasta 2 Vinny's Pizza and Pasta on J Clyde | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 4350 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4321 George Washington Memorial Hwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 8020 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Yorktown Af, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5304 George Washington Mem Hwy | open | |
| Zero's Subs | Other | Sandwiches | 4508 George Washington Mem Hwy | open |
| Crêpe House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5519 George Washington Mem Hwy | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 23 | 22 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 25 | 24 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 30 | 28 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 30 | 28 | — | — | — | 2 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 33 | 30 | 11 | 17 | 2 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 34 | 31 | 11 | 18 | 2 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 32 | 29 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 28 | 26 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 35 | 32 | 14 | 17 | 1 | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 31 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 34 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 32 | 30 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 30 | 28 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 34 | 32 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 33 | 31 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 37 | 35 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 35 | 33 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 42 | 40 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 41 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 40 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 39 | 37 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 36 | 34 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 40 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 38 | 36 | 17 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 39 | 36 | 15 | 17 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 36 | 33 | 14 | 16 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 35 | 32 | 14 | 16 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 38 | 36 | 15 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 42 | 40 | 15 | 21 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 41 | 39 | 15 | 20 | 4 | — | NAICS2022 |
Nearby markets (within 5 miles)
| ZCTA | Distance | Restaurants | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23696 | 1.6 mi | 1 | 2016 |