BMIE Market 23805

Prince George County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,408 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,314 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,754 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,490 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,723 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,807 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,209 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$233,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,533 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	71.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 23805
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-24.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+55.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 27–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 23805. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.0	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.6	44	35%	+15.3
Market Momentum Score	22.7	23	25%	+5.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,408	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	60,807	31	40%	+12.4
Households (ACS)	8,754	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	35%	+5.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.1	60	25%	+15.0
Population (ACS)	21,408	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	60,807	31	20%	+6.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-24.3	12	50%	+5.9
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	30%	+5.1
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (68)

By cuisine

American 14 · Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Asian 6 · Coffee 6 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 5 · Chicken / wings 5 · Chinese 4 · Italian 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Caribbean 2 · Dessert 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 48 · Quick service 18 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Buffet 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
America's Best Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	3330 S Crater Rd #28	open
Arby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3300 S Crater Rd	open
Betto's Restaurant, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3270 S Crater Rd	open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3475 S Crater Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2730 S Crater Rd	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service	Seafood · American	3330 S Crater Road	open
Cathy's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2801 Courtland Rd	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2010-12 S Sycamore St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2716 S Crater Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	153 Wagner Rd	open
El Arriero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	12204 S Crater Rd	open
El Paraiso 2	Bar	Latin American (other) · Mexican	2138 S Crater Rd	open
Express Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	3140 s crater rd	open
Flavors Jamaican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1962 S Sycamore St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1865 S Crater Rd	open
Hong Kong Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	Japanese · Asian	3301 S Crater Rd	open
Huddle House Huddle House	Casual dining	American	11815 S Crater Rd	open
Huddle House	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches · Coffee	11815 S Crater Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11815 S Crater Rd	open
Jivans Pizzairia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2138A S Crater Rd	open
K Wings World	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16 Goodrich Ave	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3335A S. Crater Road	open
King's Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2910 S Crater Rd	open
Klassi Kreationz	Bar			open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Halal / kosher	3825 South Crater Road	open
Lighthouse Seafood Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11976 S Crater Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3225 S Crater Rd	open
Little Caesars Pizza Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2004 S Sycamore St	open
Lucky Wings & Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2138 S Crater Rd	open
Mama Rita's Restaurant and Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	11976 S Crater Rd	open
Marco Polo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2138 S Crater Rd	open
Maria's Tienda y Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1847 S Crater Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2139 S Crater Rd	open
Mexican restaurant Bar & Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3270 S Crater Rd	open
Mo's Market Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	2710 S Crater Rd	open
Nanny's Restaurant & Catering	Buffet	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	11900 S Crater Rd	open
Outlaw's Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	3729 S Crater Rd	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2120 S Crater Rd	open
Philly Connection	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3140 S Crater Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3200 S Crater Rd Petersburg City	open
Plaza Don Quixote Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3270 S Crater Rd	open
Plaza Mexico Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3270 S Crater Rd	open
Rams Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	12600 S Crater Rd	open
Sal's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2017 S Sycamore St	open
Shaker's Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2801 Courtland Rd	open
Shut Yo Mouf Soulfood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12205 S Crater Rd	open
Simona's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	30 Medical Park Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3500 S Crater Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3219 S Crater Rd Unit A	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3294 S. Crater Road	open
Taste of China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3330 S Crater Rd	open
The Cosmic Crumb	Bakery	Bakery	12516 Gravelbrook Rd	open
The Grille at Dogwood Trace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	3108 Homestead Dr	open
The Mad Italian Pasta & Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2545 S Crater Rd	open
The Magnificent Outspoken And Beautiful Wives Of Richmond Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3849 S Crater Rd	open
The Rinkeydink Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	2550 S Crater Rd	open
Tian Tian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	2130 S Crater Rd	open
Top's China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2043 S Crater Rd	open
TraditionZ Wings & Grill Sports Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	3330-5 S. Crater Rd., Unit 5	open
Triumphant Living Center, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3959 S Crater Rd	open
Ukrop's Super Markets	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3330 S Crater Rd	open
Va Flavors Jamaican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	2030 S Sycamore St	open
Viet Huong – Vietnamese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	2545 S Crater Rd	open
Walmart Bakery	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	3500 S Crater Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1859 S Crater Road	open
Wonder Bread	Bakery	Bakery	3555 S Crater Rd	open
Yankee Coffee Shop	Casual dining · Coffee shop	American · Coffee	2557 S Crater Rd	open
Rain Supper Club Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		49 Walnut Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	18	18	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	21	20	11	9	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	23	22	13	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	21	20	12	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	23	22	14	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	23	22	12	9	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	22	20	11	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	20	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	23	20	11	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	22	19	7	12	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	25	24	11	12	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	28	26	11	13	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	32	29	13	14	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	31	29	12	16	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	31	29	11	17	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	32	29	14	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	35	32	16	16	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	35	30	13	17	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	29	28	13	15	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	33	33	16	17	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	34	34	15	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	37	15	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	37	36	14	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	35	34	15	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	37	36	14	22	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	30	10	20	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	28	9	19	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 23805. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.