BMIE Market 24251

Scott County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,937 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±646 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,536 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,773 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,417 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$44,505 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,983 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$676 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$159,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	117.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 24251
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-30.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 24251. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.5	44	40%	+17.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.5	38	35%	+13.5
Market Momentum Score	23.0	23	25%	+5.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,937	67	40%	+26.9
Median household income (ACS)	44,505	9	40%	+3.7
Households (ACS)	3,536	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.3	67	25%	+16.8
Population (ACS)	7,937	67	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	44,505	9	20%	+1.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 7 · Burgers 4 · Bakery 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Campus Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	432 Kane St	open
El Ranchito Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	201 W Jackson St	open
Franco's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	114 W Jackson St	open
Hardee’s Hardee's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches · American	157 KANE St	open
Hob	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	2256 Daniel Boone Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Quick service	Pizza	1369 W Jackson St	open
Kane St. Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	744 Kane St	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	215 Kane St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	119 Gateway Plaza	open
Orange Blossom Creamery	Dessert · Café · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Bakery	115 W Jackson St Ste 201	open
Pal's Sudden Service Pal's Church Hill	Quick service	Burgers · American	527 Kane St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	247 Kane St	open
Pizza Plus Pizza Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	597 Kane St	open
Smoke ~ n ~ Pig	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	132 W Jackson St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	101 US Hwy 21 F	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	247 Kane Street	open
The Family Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	101 East Jackson St Ste 103	open
The Garys Farmstand	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	429 Spring Valley Cir	open
The Ice Box	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	363 Kane St	open
Molcajetes Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	201 West Jackson St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 24251. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
24290	3.5 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.