BMIE Market 24605

Tazewell County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,872 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±536 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,634 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±328 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,301 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,293 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$52,653 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,549 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$880 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$137,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	49.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 24605
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+185.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 15–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 24605. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.8	49	40%	+19.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.0	51	35%	+17.8
Market Momentum Score	77.0	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,872	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	52,653	18	40%	+7.3
Households (ACS)	3,634	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.5	31	25%	+7.8
Population (ACS)	8,872	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	52,653	18	20%	+3.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 6 · Mexican 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Burgers 4 · BBQ 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	516 Commerce Drive	open
Bellacino's Bellacino's Pizza and Grinders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4029 College Ave	open
Bob Evans Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	510 Commerce Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 Sanders Lane	open
Casa Familia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4025 College Ave	open
Culture Grill & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	504 Commerce Dr	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	510 Spring St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	2113 College Ave	open
East Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	4017 College Ave	open
El Patio Mexican Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	523 Commerce Dr	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	701 S College Ave	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	36889 Governor G C Peery Hwy	open
It's The Pits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	107 Sanders Ln	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	4035 College Ave	open
Joe's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	527 Commerce Dr	open
Kwik Kafe Vending Co., Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 Furnace St	open
La Fiesta Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	504 Commerce Dr	open
Macado's Macado's Charlotte	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	535 Commerce Dr	open
Margaret's Country Corner	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	500 Virginia Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	506 Commerce Dr	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	711 S College Ave	open
PW's Hometown Bistro	Other	Sandwiches	527 Commerce Dr	open
Savory Flavors	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1204 Virginia Ave	open
Seafood Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		392 Shady Pines Drive	open
Secret Garden And Tea Room,inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4025 College Ave	open
Shogun Sushi Hibachi Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	512 Commerce Dr	open
Sicilia's Pizzeria Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Pizza	4001 College Ave	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1000 Leatherwood Ln	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2113 College Ave Unit #1	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3951 College Ave	open
The Gathering Place Café	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	103 Spring St	open
The Painted Pony Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	504 Commerce Dr	open
Tray King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2060 Leatherwood Ln	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4001 College Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	508 Commerce Dr	open
Western Sizzlin	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	3085 Stadium Dr	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service		4001 College Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	1	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	1	9	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	3	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	12	2	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	4	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	4	12	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	17	4	13	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	16	3	13	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	4	10	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	14	4	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	16	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	9	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	22	20	10	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 24605. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants
24613	2.9 mi	—
24606	3.9 mi	—
24848	4.5 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.