BMIE Market 24651

Tazewell County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±719 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,472 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,314 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,051 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$44,072 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,061 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$477 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$119,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,007 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	152.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 24651
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-38.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 4–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 24651. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	41.8	42	40%	+16.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.4	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	19.8	20	25%	+4.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,982	63	40%	+25.3
Median household income (ACS)	44,072	9	40%	+3.6
Households (ACS)	2,472	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.4	59	25%	+14.7
Population (ACS)	5,982	63	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	44,072	9	20%	+1.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-38.5	7	50%	+3.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 6 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 5 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barrel Oak Winery Barrel Oak Winery and Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		308 W Main St	open
Bee Noodle'd	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	124 Federal Ave	open
Big Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	104 Carline Ave	open
Donut Diva	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	203 east fincastle turnpike	open
Fiesta Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	100 Tazewell Mall Cir	open
Fisher & Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ · American	1735 State Rte 693	open
Gene M Forbes Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		120 McDonalds St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2136 FINCASTLE TURNPIKE	open
Italian Village of Tazewell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	817 Fincastle Turnpike	open
Long John Silver's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Seafood	901 E Fincastle Tpke	open
Main Street Cafe	Café	Coffee · Mexican	208 E Main St	open
Mattie’s Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Gose Mill Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	621 Tazewell Ave	open
McDonald's	Quick service		120 McDonalds St	open
Old Virginia Chophouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	203 Main St	open
Seven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	203 W Main St	open
Shepherd's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1661 Fincastle Turnpike	open
The Bearded Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	592 Main St	open
The Dog House Poker Room and Pub	Bar			open
The Front Porch On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	254 Main St	open
The Happy Goat	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	216 Main St	open
The Well Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	168 Main St	open
Coal Bucket Restaurant, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		230A Tazewell Mall Cir	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 24651. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.