BMIE Market 27017

Surry County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,085 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±860 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±332 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,597 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,020 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,329 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$704 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$152,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,257 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	108.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27017
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27017. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.9	54	40%	+21.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.7	42	35%	+14.6
Market Momentum Score	20.6	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,085	71	40%	+28.4
Median household income (ACS)	59,329	28	40%	+11.4
Households (ACS)	3,887	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	10,085	71	20%	+14.2
Median household income (ACS)	59,329	28	20%	+5.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	9.1	39	20%	+7.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 10 · Mexican 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Casual dining 7 · Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	402 East Atkins Street	open
Central Cafe	Café · Casual dining	Coffee · Sandwiches · American	304 N Main St	open
Coach's Neighborhood Grill Dobson Coach's Neighborhood Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	134 Twin Oaks Rd	open
Cody Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Crossroads Cafe	Café	Coffee	5075 NC 268	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2359 Zephyr Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	912 E Atkins St Wilcohess	open
El Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7886 NC-268	open
El Tapatio	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 W Atkins St	open
Golden China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	109 Llewellyn St	open
Grounded Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	521 E Atkins St	open
Hardee's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		911-A E Alkins St Ste A	open
Harvest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	286 Cabernet Ln	open
Haze Gray Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		761 Stony Knoll Rd	open
Herrera Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 Vineyard Ln	open
Hidden Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		125 Hidden Vines Ln	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7444 Us 601	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	116 Bray Ford Rd	open
Hutton Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		178 Hutton Vineyards Lane	open
Little Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	310 N White St	open
Liz’s Taco	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	110 S Crutchfield St	open
Lorene's Bakery & Catering	Bakery · Dessert · Catering	Bakery · Dessert	314 N White St	open
Los Magueyes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	109 Llewellyn St	open
Matt's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 W Atkins St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	512 E Atkins Street	open
Mr Taco	Quick service		7886 NC 268	open
Neveria Los Arcos Queretanos llc	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · American	123 W Atkins St	open
New York Pizzeria & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	115 W Atkins St	open
Plaza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		607 Blessing Dr	open
Putters Patio & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	134 Twin Oaks Rd	open
Shelton Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		Shelton Vineyards, 286 Cabernet Ln	open
Smokey River Farm Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		618 White Dirt Rd	open
Stony Knoll Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1143 Stony Knoll Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	117 W Atkins St	open
Sue's Kitchen	Casual dining	American	709 S Main St	open
Surry Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2368 Zephyr Rd	open
Taco’s & Tortas San Pablito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7780 NC-268	open
The Chill Mobile	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		S. Crutchfield Street	open
The Depot Restaurant at Cody Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	112 Old Depot Ln	open
Tlaquepaque Mexican Grille & Restaurant Tlaquepaque Of King	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	710 E Atkins St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	17	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27017. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.