BMIE Market 27023

Forsyth County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,414 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,873 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,977 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$107,924 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,064 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$369,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,989 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	27.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27023
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+250.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27023. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.7	80	40%	+31.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.7	72	35%	+25.1
Market Momentum Score	71.8	72	25%	+17.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,414	76	40%	+30.4
Median household income (ACS)	107,924	86	40%	+34.2
Households (ACS)	5,405	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.7	73	25%	+18.3
Population (ACS)	14,414	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	107,924	86	20%	+17.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 4 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alex's Grill & Ice Cream	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	6750 Shallowford Rd	open
Antonio's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	156 Lowes Foods Dr	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	189 Lowes Foods Dr	open
China's Best	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1321 Lewisville Clemmons Rd	open
Great Wagon Road Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	110 Shallowford Vlg Ct	open
Incendiary Brewing Company- Lewisville	Brewery / taproom		5495 Williams Road	open
J Butler's Bar & Grille J Butler's Bar & Grille Lewisville	Casual dining · Bar	American	1355 Lewisville Clemmons Rd	open
Liberty Family Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7970 Concord Church Rd	open
Medaloni Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		9125 Shallowford Rd	open
Old Nick Williams Co. Farm & Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar · Brewery / taproom		2675 Williams Rd	open
Old Nick's Pub	Bar		191 Lowes Foods Dr	open
Pig N Out	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6489 Shallowford Rd	open
PIG-N-OUT BARBEQUE INC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6489 Shallowford Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5062 Styers Ferry Rd	open
Simply Sweets by Samantha	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6794 Shallowford Rd	open
The Coffee Mill	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6275 Shallowford Rd	open
Westbend Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		5193 Riverwest Rd	open
Baked Just So - Lewisville	Bakery	Bakery	6782 Shallowford Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	16	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27023. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.