BMIE Market 27244

Alamance County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,329 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±685 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,509 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±303 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,173 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,049 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,323 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	23.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$972 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$278,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,001 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	53.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27244
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27244. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.4	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	23.8	24	25%	+6.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,329	78	40%	+31.2
Median household income (ACS)	75,323	56	40%	+22.2
Households (ACS)	4,509	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.9	92	25%	+23.0
Population (ACS)	16,329	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	75,323	56	20%	+11.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 5 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beer Republic	Bar		901 E Haggard Ave	open
Broadway Cafe	Café		130 N Williamson Ave	open
Cakes, etc by Cindy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		301 W Haggard Ave	open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Campus Dr	open
College Street Taphouse	Bar		131 W College Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	417 W Haggard Ave	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	700 E Haggard Ave	open
Farm Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1457 N NC-87	open
Fat Frogg Bar and Grill The	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2009 Timberline Station Dr	open
Freshii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	100 Campus Dr	open
Hursey's Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1039 N NC Highway 87	open
Hursey's Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2174 N North Carolina Hwy 87	open
Irazu Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	100 Campus Dr	open
Los Dos Compadres Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2085 NC-87	open
MacLaren's Pub	Bar		471 Mill Pointe Way	open
MaGerk's Pub and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	138 W Lebanon Ave	open
Mediterranean Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	202 W Haggard Ave	open
Old Ski Lodge	Bar · Casual dining		2614 Old North Carolina 87 Hwy	open
Pandora's Pies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	130 N Williamson Ave	open
Paulies Pub and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		415 W Haggard Ave	open
QDOBA Mexican Eats Qdoba	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	100 Dalton McMichael Dr	open
San Giuseppe Salami Co.	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2172 NC-87	open
Sandy's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		415 W Haggard Ave	open
Simply Thai and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	2041 Timberline Station Dr	open
Sip Sip Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	2035 Timberline Station Dr	open
Skid's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	134 W Haggard Ave	open
Smitty's Homemade Ice Cream Smitty's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	130 N Williamson Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	112 Lebanon Ave	open
Tangent Eat Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		116 W Lebanon Ave	open
Taqueria La Joya	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		807 W Haggard Ave	open
The Lounge - Elon University	Bar		2700 Campus Box	open
The Mark at Elon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	605 North O'Kelly Avenue	open
The Oak House	Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	112 N Williamson Ave	open
The Root Trackside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	110 W Lebanon Ave	open
The Rosemary at Elon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	202 W Haggard Ave	open
West End Terrace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	138 W Lebanon Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27244. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27202	2.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.