BMIE Market 27258

Alamance County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±699 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,429 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,006 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,628 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,079 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±233 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$225,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27258
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	0 (range 0–2) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.68) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27258. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.68, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.3	62	40%	+24.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.8	50	35%	+17.4
Market Momentum Score	29.2	29	25%	+7.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,391	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	78,079	59	40%	+23.8
Households (ACS)	2,429	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.3	87	25%	+21.8
Population (ACS)	6,391	64	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	78,079	59	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Mexican 4 · American 3 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1928 Mill House Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	100 Cone Dr Unit 200	open
Banda Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1043 Jimmie Kerr Road	open
Carlton's Creative Desserts	Bakery	Bakery	1003 W Main St Ste B4	open
Cielito Lindo Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	808 E Main St	open
Crazy Mexico #1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1138 Roxboro St	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1043 Jimmie Kerr Road	open
Dickie-Do's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Coffee · BBQ · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	20 Roxboro St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1044 Jimmie Kerr Rd	open
El Ray Mexican Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2629 N Church St # B	open
Flowers Baking Company Flowers' discount Bakery Store	Bakery	Bakery	2635 N Church St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1001 West Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		1001 W Main St	open
Rio Grandè Grill by Scoop of love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	515 E Main St	open
Taqueria 3 Hermanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1003 W Main St	open
Taqueria La Bonita NC	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1206 E Main St	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1043 Jimmie Kerr Road	open
The Victorian Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	335 Roxboro St	open
Tony's Diner	Casual dining	American	2628 N Church St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1044 Jimmy Kerr Road	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	2	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27258. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.