BMIE Market 27278

Orange County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	27,925 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,307 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,533 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,286 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	10,286 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,297 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$414,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,563 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	103.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	42 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27278
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+82.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	47 (range 43–52) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27278. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.4	86	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.5	68	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	40.4	40	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	27,925	87	40%	+34.9
Median household income (ACS)	105,887	85	40%	+33.8
Households (ACS)	11,533	88	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.5	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.1
Population (ACS)	27,925	87	20%	+17.5
Median household income (ACS)	105,887	85	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.6	23	50%	+11.6
10-year restaurant growth	13.5	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (103)

By cuisine

American 19 · Mexican 15 · Pizza 8 · Bakery 7 · Coffee 6 · Italian 6 · Burgers 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 5 · Breakfast 4 · Dessert 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · BBQ 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Chinese 2 · European 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 56 · Bar 16 · Quick service 14 · Bakery 7 · Casual dining 7 · Food truck 7 · Dessert 6 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Hero Hillsborough	Restaurant (service type not stated)		640 N Churton St	open
Antonia's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	101 N Churton St	open
Bandido's Mexican Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	122 S Churton St	open
BE Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	500 Valley Forge Rd	open
Big Bob's City Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	584 Cornelius St	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	330 S. Churton St.	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	618 Hampton Pointe Blvd	open
Café Cusco	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	137 Mayo St	open
Cheese Bread King	Bakery	Bakery	500 Valley Forge Rd	open
China Fuji	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Japanese · Asian	615 Hampton Pointe Blvd	open
Churton Grove Tot lot	Bar		W Hatterleigh Ave, Hillsborough, NC 27278	open
Coqueta Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	155 Mayo St	open
Cup-A-Joe	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	112 W King St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	112 John Earl St	open
Doña Lilia Food Truck	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Mexican · Juice / smoothies	100 Mayo St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		501 Hampton Pointe B	open
El Restaurante Ixtapa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	162 Exchange Park Ln	open
El Rodeo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	110 Boone Square St	open
Eno River Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		329 Allison St	open
Fork In The Roof	Food truck		115 W Margaret Ln	open
Golden Dragon Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		169 Boone Square St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	380 S Churton St	open
Highway 55 Burgers Shakes and Fries Hwy 55 Burgers Shakes & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	601 Hampton Pointe Blvd	open
Hillsborough BBQ Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	236 S Nash St	open
Hot Tin Roof	Bar		115 W Margaret Ln	open
House at Gatewood	Restaurant (service type not stated)		300 Route 70 East	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3121 Nc Hwy 86 N	open
Ivana Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		640 N Churton St	open
J&F Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	155 Mayo St, 155 Mayo St	open
Jacks Restaurant Jack's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	121 Rebecca Dr	open
Jay's Chicken Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	646 N Churton St	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	115 Oakdale Drive Suite 5	open
Jet Junction Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 N Churton St	open
Joe Van Gogh Coffee Roastery Joe And Joe Van Go LLC Painting	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	505 Meadowlands Dr	open
JOHNS GRILL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	3121 NC-86	open
Jubilee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	1009 Hi Mar Lane	open
Kim's Bake Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	111 N Churton St	open
Kindl Enterprises, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		129 N Scotswood Blvd	open
Kings Kava	Bar		243 S Churton St	open
La Place Hillsborough Nc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	111 N Churton St	open
Lupita’s Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	633 Cornelius St	open
Lynn Scott Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 N Churton St	open
Magic on 70 Cafe & Shoppe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	3006 US Highway 70 E	open
Maple View Farm Country Store	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3109 Dairyland Rd	open
Matthew's Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	104 N Churton St	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		501 Hampton Point Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	400 E Churton St Ext	open
Mo's Bottle Shop	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		601 Hampton Pointe Blvd Unit 3	open
Moose Lodge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	202 Holiday Park Rd	open
Murry's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2020 NC Highway 86 S	open
Mystery Brewing Public House	Brewery / taproom · Bar		230 S Nash St	open
Nash Street Tavern	Bar		250 S Nash St	open
Occoneechee Farm Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	378 S Churton St	open
Panaderia Copan Morelos	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican	3202 US-70	open
Panciuto	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Italian · Bakery	110 S Churton St	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	535 Hampton Pointe Suite A	open
Pizza Cornicione	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	230 S Nash St	open
Pops Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		670 N Churton St	open
Pueblo Viejo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	370 S Churton St	open
Samantha's Pupusas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	117 Cornelius St	open
Sanjha Chulha Indian Cuisine	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	255 S Churton St	open
Saratoga Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	108 S Churton St	open
Serratore's Pasta and Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	112 N Churton St	open
Smoking Good BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	North Carolina, 3517 NC-86 N	open
Spencer's Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		153 W King St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	535 Hampton Pointe Boulevard Suite 525-E	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	167 Mayo St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	129 North Scotswood Blvd	open
Tabor Espresso	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	505 Cornerstone Ct	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	353 S. Churton Street	open
Taco truck	Food truck	Mexican	123 Orange Grv St	open
Tacos California	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	120 US-70	open
Tacos Los Altos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	126 W King St	open
Tacos Los Altos Taco Truck	Food truck		235 S Churton St	open
Tacos Michoacan	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		231 S Churton St	open
Taqueria Mariposa	Food truck	Mexican	622 Hampton Pointe Blvd	open
The Colorado Burrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	122 S Churton St	open
The Dog House The Dog House	Quick service	Hot dogs · American	114 Boone Square St	open
The Fenix family food truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1207 Cornelius St	open
The Nomad	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	European	122 W King St	open
The Rookery	Casual dining · Bar		115 W Margaret Ln	open
The Town Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	113 W King St	open
Tokyo Express Tokyo Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	145 Mayo St	open
Tupelo Tavern	Bar		105 N Churton St	open
Village Diner	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Breakfast · American	600 W King St	open
Vinny's Italian Grill & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	133 N Scotswood Blvd	open
Volume Records & Beer	Bar		226 S Churton St	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	110 Daniel Boone St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	501 Hampton Pt # Pointe	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	375 S. Churton St.	open
Whit's Frozen Custard Whit's Frozen Custard, Hilliard, Ohio	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	240 S Nash St	open
Willie's Pizzeria and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	670 N Churton St	open
Wine-Accessorized	Winery / distillery / taproom		502 Meadowlands Dr	open
Wooden Nickel Pub - Hillsborough	Bar · Casual dining		113 N Churton St	open
Wrap N' Tap	Restaurant (service type not stated)		241 S Churton St	open
Yagg Sii Tenn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		500 Valley Forge Rd	open
Yonder	Bar		114 W King St	open
YUM Desserts	Dessert	Dessert	118 N Churton St	open
Zhang Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	117 N Scotswood Blvd	open
Compass Communications Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		220 S Churton St Ste B	closed
Gulf Rim Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 N Churton St	closed
Julia Bakes Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	101 N Churton St	closed
Radius Pizzeria & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	112 N Churton St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	25	25	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	33	33	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	26	25	12	13	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	29	28	15	13	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	28	27	16	11	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	27	27	14	12	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	30	30	15	14	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	31	30	15	13	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	30	29	15	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	27	25	11	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	29	26	12	14	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	30	28	13	15	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	35	34	15	19	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	34	33	15	17	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	35	34	14	18	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	35	35	13	19	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	36	36	14	18	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	38	37	15	19	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	43	42	16	22	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	46	43	16	21	5	2	NAICS2012
2016	45	40	15	21	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	46	41	16	21	3	3	NAICS2017
2018	50	44	20	19	5	3	NAICS2017
2019	51	44	20	19	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	51	45	21	19	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	52	46	21	19	6	4	NAICS2017
2022	53	45	23	17	5	4	NAICS2022
2023	48	42	19	19	4	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27278. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.