BMIE Market 27295

Davidson County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	39,267 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,693 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	16,144 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	37,211 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	16,528 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$63,961 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,392 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$932 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$211,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	127.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27295
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+41.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+126.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+580.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	36 (range 34–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27295. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.2	71	40%	+28.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.8	73	35%	+25.5
Market Momentum Score	82.5	83	25%	+20.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	39,267	94	40%	+37.5
Median household income (ACS)	63,961	37	40%	+14.8
Households (ACS)	16,144	95	20%	+18.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	35%	+27.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	39,267	94	20%	+18.7
Median household income (ACS)	63,961	37	20%	+7.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	30.8	84	50%	+41.8
10-year restaurant growth	41.7	78	30%	+23.4
20-year restaurant growth	126.7	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 13 · Coffee 9 · Pizza 8 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 7 · Bakery 6 · BBQ 6 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Quick service 16 · Bar 10 · Coffee shop 8 · Bakery 7 · Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 5 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Barney Brews	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4344 S North Carolina Hwy 150	open
Biscuitville Biscuitville	Quick service	Breakfast · Cajun, Creole, Southern	918 Winston Rd	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	6385 Hwy 52	open
BOTANA TIME	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4423 S North Carolina Hwy 150	open
Childress Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1000 Childress Vineyards Rd	open
Childress Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Chuck's Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	4423 S NC Highway 150 Ste D	open
Confluence Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	4307 Welcome Arcadia Rd	open
Curran Alexander Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1697 S NC Highway 150	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6479 Old Highway 52 N	open
Don Black's Allied Veterans	Bar		1200 Piedmont Dr	open
Dusina's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Pizza · Sandwiches	7364 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
El Carreton Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5114 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
FAAN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4705 S North Carolina Hwy 150 Ste D	open
Fuji Moto	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	64 US-64	open
Godfather's Pizza Godfathers Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	215 US-64 #14	open
Gregg's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	5479 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
Guadalajara Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	217 US-64	open
HoneyBell's country store	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	215 US-64	open
HoneyPop,s Bakery & Sweet Treats	Bakery	Bakery	6483 Old U.S. Hwy 52 Suite E	open
Hoyt's Country Cooking	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	5424 N North Carolina Hwy 150	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	1009 Winston Rd	open
JB's Sports Bar	Bar		66 W US Highway 64	open
Junius Lindsay Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		385 Dr Zimmerman Rd	open
Kerley's Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5114 Old US Highway 52	open
Kimono Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	6655 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
Kiser Country Mercantile & Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6157 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
Kristie's Dough Delights	Bakery	Bakery	212 Carriage Trace Ln	open
Lexington Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	100 Smokehouse Ln	open
Lil Crumb Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	1153 Yadkin College Rd	open
Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6999 Old US Highway 52	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	812 Winston Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6421 Old Us Hwy 52	open
Michael Kennedy Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		162 Davidson Dr	open
Mikes Foreign Auto	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7963 S Highway 150	open
MoJoe Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	6282 Old US 52	open
Murano's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4344 S North Carolina Hwy 150	open
Native Vines Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1336 N NC Highway 150	open
Nick's Old Fashioned Hamburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	6999 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
Omega House Arcadia	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7998 S NC Highway 150	open
One 50's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Hot dogs · Coffee	690 S NC Highway 150	open
Panda Panda Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	416 Piedmont Dr	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5746 Old U.S. Hwy 52 Suite A	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4423 S NC Highway 150	open
Pound Town	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	165 Foxfire Cir	open
Randy's Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	162 Davidson Dr	open
Red Donut Shop Red Donut Shop NC	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	103 Ryan St	open
Red Donut Shop Welcome Red Donut Shop NC	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	6640-B, 6640 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
Smiley's Lexington BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	917 Winston Rd	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1301 Winston Rd	open
Speedy's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	408 Piedmont Dr	open
Stamey's Barbecue of Tyro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4524 North Carolina Hwy 150	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	152 Enterprise Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	136 Forest Hill Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	104 Regents Center Ct	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4344 S Highway 150	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	846 Winston Road	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	150 Enterprise Road	open
Tacos and beer Paola	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	3778 N NC Highway 150	open
Taqueria Asadero	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	6999 Old U.S. Hwy 52	open
TarHeel Q BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6835 US-64	open
Texas Steak and Tap House	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	412 Piedmont Dr	open
The Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	15 Murphy Dr	open
The Galaxy Family Gameroom	Bar		4389 S NC Highway 150	open
Time Out Hut	Bar		410 Piedmont Dr	open
Times Square Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	828 Winston Rd	open
Tricia's Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	408	open
Weathervane Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1452 Welcome Arcadia Rd	open
Wings To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1109 Winston Rd	open
Yarborough's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	321 Marco Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	16	16	12	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	15	11	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	14	9	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	11	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	23	21	13	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	21	19	14	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	19	15	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	24	22	17	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	31	26	20	6	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	30	25	19	6	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	29	26	17	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	27	24	17	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	26	23	16	7	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	27	24	18	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	30	27	19	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	30	27	15	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	26	14	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	31	28	15	13	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	31	28	16	12	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	30	28	15	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	31	16	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	40	34	15	16	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27295. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27374	4.8 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.