BMIE Market 27517

Chatham County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,564 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,442 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±587 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,346 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,279 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,683 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,805 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,638 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$608,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,128 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27517
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+17.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+240.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	46 (range 36–56) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27517. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.5	91	40%	+36.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.2	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	43.0	43	25%	+10.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,564	89	40%	+35.4
Median household income (ACS)	128,683	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	12,608	90	20%	+18.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	17.2	61	35%	+21.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.5	66	25%	+16.6
Population (ACS)	29,564	89	20%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	128,683	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.8	17	50%	+8.3
10-year restaurant growth	17.2	61	30%	+18.3
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (75)

By cuisine

American 12 · Coffee 10 · Pizza 10 · Italian 8 · Mexican 6 · Asian 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Chinese 3 · Seafood 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Dessert 2 · French 2 · Indian 2 · Japanese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Café 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Bar 6 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 5 · Food truck 3 · Other 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Casual dining 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amante Gourmet Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6209 Falconbridge Rd	open
Atrium Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Europa Dr	open
B. Christopher's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Bangkok 54 Chapel Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	6118 Farrington Rd	open
Bean And Barrel	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50100 Governors Dr	open
Bin 54 Steak & Cellar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	1201 Raleigh Rd	open
Bluebird	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	601 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Brenz Pizza Co. Chapel Hill Brenz Pizza Co. Columbus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3120 Environ Way	open
Brixx Wood Fired Pizza Brixx Wood Fired Pizza + Craft Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	501 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Cafe Carolina & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	601 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Captain John's Dockside	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood · American	11550 US Hwy 15 501 N	open
Carolina 1663	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1 Europa Dr	open
Chopt Creative Salad Co. Chopt Creative Salad Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	1490 Fordham Blvd #130	open
Chronic Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	504 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Ciao Bella	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1716 Farrington Point Rd	open
Coco Bistro & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Vegetarian	101 Glen Lennox Rd	open
Comida Mexicana El Susano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	6209 Falconbridge Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	11312 Hwy 15 501 N. Chatham Crossings	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	110 Stancell Dr	open
Elements	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2110 Environ Way	open
Eml Properties Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50160 Governors Dr	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1101 Environ Way	open
Five Guys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	407 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Five Loaves & Two Fishes	Food truck		1 Europa Dr	open
Flair Fusion Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French · European	50100 Governors Dr	open
Fruit Dragon Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		503 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Fusion Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	100 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Geo's Tavern & Oyster Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1118 Environ Way	open
Gov's Burger & Tap	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	50050 Governors Dr	open
Guanajuato Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11520 US Hwy 15 501 N	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6116 Farrington Rd	open
Hawthorne & Wood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3140 Environ Way	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	106 Ephesus Church Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	11312 Hwy 15 501 N Suite 102	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6118-C Farrington Road	open
Jujube	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Chinese	1201 Raleigh Rd Ste L	open
Kahlovera Mexican Bar and Grill Kahlovera Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	504 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Lime & Lemon Indian Grill & Bar - Chapel Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	100 Meadowmont Village Cir # 101	open
Mactlr Management Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50101 Governors Dr Ste 100	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	141 Chatham Downs Dr, Ste 201	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11460 Us 15-501 N	open
Meet Fresh	Dessert	Dessert	407 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
MunchiLove	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	50221 Governors Dr	open
Nabil Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		50040 Governors Dr	open
Nantucket Grill Nantucket Grill-Durham	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	5925 Farrington Rd	open
New China Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	6118 Farrington Rd Ste G	open
Old East Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1118 Environ Way	open
One Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Panda Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	11312 Us 15 501 N Ste 303	open
Paris Banh Mi Chapel Hill	Bakery · Café	Vietnamese · Coffee · Bakery	407 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Quickly Bubble Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	503 Meadowmont Village Cir	open
Raaga	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	3140 Environ Way	open
SaBeans	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	11548 US Hwy 15 501 N	open
Sal's NY Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	50010 Governors Dr	open
Shaffer-Kenan Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	116 W. Barbee Chapel Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee		open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6120 Farrington Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	88 Chatham Downs Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	11552 Us 15 501 N Ste 202	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	50040 Governors Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1216 Raleigh Rd # A	open
Ta Contento	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	11620 US 15 501 Hwy N	open
TACO KING FOOD TRUCK	Food truck	Mexican	102 Ephesus Church Rd	open
Tarantini Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	50160 Governors Dr	open
Thai Palace Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1206 Raleigh Rd	open
The Hill Nutrition	Café	Coffee	50221 Governors Dr	open
Tobacco Road Sports Cafe	Bar		1118 Environ Way	open
Village Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	11312 US 15 501 Hwy, S # 300	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 Scarlet Dr.	open
WXYZ Lounge	Bar		1001 S Hamilton Rd	open
Pathways Education Planning	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 Europa Dr Ste 170	closed
Saturni Fusion Bistro & Coffee Lounge	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	431 W Franklin St #120	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	12500 US 15 501 N	closed
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	12500 US 15 501 N	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	17	8	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	8	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	24	24	13	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	25	24	16	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	27	27	17	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	27	27	20	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	27	27	16	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	27	26	14	10	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	28	27	14	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	29	17	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	30	28	16	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	36	35	18	15	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	45	42	23	17	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	40	37	18	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	42	39	18	17	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	43	40	20	19	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	44	41	19	20	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	52	48	20	23	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	37	19	15	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	34	19	13	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27517. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27599	4.4 mi	5	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.