BMIE Market 27589

Warren County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,739 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±527 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,370 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,027 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$46,730 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,857 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$840 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$115,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,816 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	169.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27589
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27589. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.8	44	40%	+17.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.4	36	35%	+12.7
Market Momentum Score	44.1	44	25%	+11.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,739	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	46,730	11	40%	+4.5
Households (ACS)	2,955	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.4	59	25%	+14.7
Population (ACS)	6,739	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	46,730	11	20%	+2.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	-10	17	20%	+3.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 5 · Burgers 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bragging Rooster Beer and Mead	Brewery / taproom · Bar		120 S Main St	open
Brain Freeze	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	141 S Main St	open
Burger Barn	Quick service	Burgers · American	328 E Macon St	open
China King	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	319 E Macon St	open
Drip Coffee + Market	Coffee shop	Coffee	127 S Main St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	301 E Macon St Wilcohess	open
Firehouse Biscuits and Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	640 W Ridgeway St	open
George's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Pizza	111 N Bragg St	open
Grain Hustle Beer Co.	Bar · Brewery / taproom		112 Madison St	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	American · Burgers	417 W Ridgeway St	open
Hardware Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	106 S Main St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2222 US Highway 401 South	open
Joe's Place	Quick service		640 W Ridgeway St	open
Lake Gaston Coffee Co, Warrenton	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	127 S Main St	open
Lloyd's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	108 S Main St	open
Locorum Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		142 S Main St	open
Mama'S Cafe & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		845 US Highway 158 Byp	open
Mazatlan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	895 US-158 BUS	open
Milano's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	107 N Main St	open
Nonna's Main Street Cafe	Café	Coffee	127 S Main St	open
Robinson Ferry Restaurant & Spirits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	111 Bragg St	open
Roxie's Sports Bar and Lounge	Bar		109 S Hall St	open
Sneaky Penguin at Mill Hill	Brewery / taproom · Bar		112 Madison St	open
Spellbound Seasonings	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	305 Macon St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Sweet Delights Cookies and Things	Bakery	Bakery	110 E Macon St	open
The Wandering Dawg	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	106 S Main St	open
Time Out	Bar · Casual dining		S Main St	open
Warrenton Restaurant Ventures Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 N Bragg St	open
WISE 3-in-1 Soul Food Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		139 S Main St	open
Chilly Chicken Creamery	Other	Sandwiches	127 S Main St	closed
Trinity Source	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	139 S Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27589. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.