BMIE Market 27708

Durham County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±69 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	Data source not yet connected
Housing units	Data source not yet connected
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	19.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	0.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27708
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+900.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27708. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	36.1	36	40%	+14.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.6	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	77.1	77	25%	+19.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 36 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,253	53	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	0	1	20%	+0.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+38.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.7	19	25%	+6.0
Population (ACS)	3,253	53	20%	+13.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	11.1	69	50%	+34.5
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Buffet 4 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Bar 1 · Casual dining 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alpine Bagel Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	South Rd.	open
Bella Union	Buffet		McClendon Tower	open
Chick-fil-A	Buffet		PO Box	open
Duke Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	West Union Duke Campus	open
Duke University Faculty Commons	Restaurant (service type not stated)		416 Chapel Dr	open
Duke University Marketplace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1324 Campus Dr	open
MarketPlace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	230 Science Dr	open
McClendon Tower	Buffet		PO Box	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	106 Bryan Ctr	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	416 Chapel Drive	open
Plate and Pitchfork	Buffet		PO Box	open
Saladelia - Perkins Library @ Duke	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	411 Chapel Dr	open
Sazón Il Fornaio	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · Italian · American	416 Chapel Dr	open
The Loop Pizza Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	125 Science Dr	open
The Tower at Duke	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 Wannamaker Dr	open
Divinity Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	407 Chapel Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	9	2	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	8	1	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	8	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	—	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	—	6	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27708. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27701	2.5 mi	106	2023
27705	2.8 mi	107	2023
27707	3.2 mi	142	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.