BMIE Market 27712

Durham County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,299 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,031 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,551 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±776 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,035 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,276 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$91,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,655 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$372,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	33.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27712
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27712. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.6	81	40%	+32.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.1	62	35%	+21.7
Market Momentum Score	28.3	28	25%	+7.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,299	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	91,331	74	40%	+29.8
Households (ACS)	9,551	85	20%	+16.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.1	95	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	24,299	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	91,331	74	20%	+14.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Quick service 8 · Bar 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
All People's Grill	Bar	Burgers	6122 Guess Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5278 N Roxboro Rd	open
Captain D's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4300 N Roxboro Rd	open
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service	Seafood · American	4300 N Roxboro Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		4730 Guess Road	open
Del Rancho Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5279 N Roxboro Rd	open
Don Cecilios	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5279 N Roxboro Rd	open
Handy Kitchen Chinese Restaurant	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	5279 N Roxboro St	open
Joe's Bar & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1204 Torredge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5277 N Roxboro Road	open
Pizza Jr. Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5279 N Roxboro Rd	open
Pupuseria y Taqueria Orellana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5300 N Roxboro St #2228	open
Ricky's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5279 N Roxboro St	open
Rise Phoenix Rise Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1912 Redding Ln	open
Silver Spoon Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Breakfast	5230 N Roxboro Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5300 N Roxboro Rd	open
The Dog House The Dog House	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	5279 N Roxboro St Ste 1	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	5116 N Roxboro St	open
No-bull Streetacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5032 Guess Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27712. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27503	4.1 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.