BMIE Market 27803

Nash County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,055 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,857 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,227 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,786 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,124 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$913 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$174,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 27803
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-18.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 27803. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.1	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	76.7	77	35%	+26.9
Market Momentum Score	70.2	70	25%	+17.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,055	81	40%	+32.6
Median household income (ACS)	60,124	30	40%	+11.9
Households (ACS)	8,857	83	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.5	93	25%	+23.4
Population (ACS)	20,055	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	60,124	30	20%	+6.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 3 · Asian 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 7 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
98.5 The Big Dawg	Bar		12714 E NC-97	open
Cali Style Burger Cali Style Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	886 W Raleigh Blvd	open
Ccs Boom Boom Room	Bar		7516 Preacher Joyner Rd	open
Chew 'n Chat Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1005 W Mount Dr	open
China House Restaurant China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	818 Harbour W Dr	open
Crown Chicken & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	963 W Raleigh Blvd	open
Dragon's Cauldron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1820 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1212 Bethlehem Rd	open
Hardee’s	Quick service		886 W Raleigh Blvd	open
Holiday Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining		3066 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
HWY 55 Burgers Shakes and Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4124 S Church St	open
JB's at Platinum Food Truck Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	495 Raleigh Rd	open
McDonald's	Quick service		951 Raleigh Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	749 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
Michael Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2976 S Church St	open
Mr. Ribs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1260 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
NC Beer Factory	Brewery / taproom · Bar		500 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
Ocean City	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3000 S Wesleyan Blvd	open
Rainbow Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	10581 NC-97	open
Ramo's Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	8211 West Mount Drive	open
Reese's Tavern Bar & Recreation	Bar		West Mount Dr	open
Streamside	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1801 S Halifax Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	10577 E NC-97	open
Tacos el paisano	Food truck		10550 E NC-97	open
Tar River Grill & pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	5696 Bend of the River Rd	open
The Banquet Hall	Bar		837 Starling Way	open
William Bryant Cleaning Services LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	2	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	4	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	2	8	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 27803. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
27878	2.0 mi	3	2019

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.