BMIE Market 28173

Union County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	65,274 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,466 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	20,430 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	45,097 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	15,103 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$150,597 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,051 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,776 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±109 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$608,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,356 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	106.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	71 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28173
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+57.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+115.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+688.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,675.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	88 (range 82–94) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +4.0 per year, r² 0.95) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	94 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	98 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28173. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +4.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.95, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	97.6	98	40%	+39.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89.4	89	35%	+31.3
Market Momentum Score	94.3	94	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 98 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	65,274	99	40%	+39.6
Median household income (ACS)	150,597	96	40%	+38.5
Households (ACS)	20,430	98	20%	+19.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	115.2	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.9	69	25%	+17.2
Population (ACS)	65,274	99	20%	+19.8
Median household income (ACS)	150,597	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	57.8	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	115.2	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	688.9	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (112)

By cuisine

Coffee 19 · American 17 · Dessert 13 · Pizza 13 · Bakery 11 · Italian 8 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 7 · Mexican 7 · Sandwiches 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 5 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Latin American (other) 4 · Tea / bubble tea 4 · BBQ 3 · Japanese 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Chinese 2 · Greek 2 · Sushi 2 · African 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Bar 18 · Dessert 17 · Quick service 17 · Café 14 · Bakery 13 · Coffee shop 12 · Casual dining 11 · Juice, smoothie, tea 8 · Food truck 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adela's Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	701 W South Main St	open
Andy's Frozen Custard Andy's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	9921 Rea Rd	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1001 Aspinal Street Providence Rd S & Kemble St & Aspinal St	open
Asian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	3913 S Providence Rd Ste C	open
Bistro D'Antonio	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3909 Providence Rd S	open
Black Chicken Fine Wine and Craft Beer	Bar		113 E North Main St	open
Blue Door Deli and Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	202 W North Main St	open
Blue Lagoon Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Burgers	203 N Broome St	open
Bojangles Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2933 Providence Road South	open
Bojangles' Famous Chicken 'n Biscuits	Quick service		1325 N Broome St	open
Burneys Sweets and More	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	318 E South Main St	open
Café Bliss	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8163 Kensington Dr Ste A	open
Cafe Shaw	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea		open
Capricci's True Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	109 W South Main St	open
Caribou Coffee Caribou Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3214 Providence Road South	open
Carolina Charcuterie & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	202 W North Main St	open
China Ii Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1309 N Broome St	open
Cork & Ale	Bar · Casual dining		113 E North Main St	open
Crossroads Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	112 N Broome St	open
Crust & Crumbs Waxhaw, NC Micro Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6822 Loblolly Cir	open
Daily grind coffee bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	116 E South Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3901 G Providence Rd. S.	open
Donatos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1526 Providence Rd S Ste 110	open
Dreamchaser's Brewery	Brewery / taproom		115 E North Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1601 S Providence Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	8121 Kensington Dr	open
East Coast Wings + Grill East Coast Wings + Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American · Chicken / wings	8121- F, Kensington Dr	open
El Tecate mexican restaurant waxhaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1615 S Providence Rd	open
El Vallarta El Vallarta Mexican Restaurant in Waxhaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1201 N Broome St	open
Emmets Social Table	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	401 E South Main St	open
Farley's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3202 Potter Rd	open
FD Cigar Company	Bar		108 E South Main St	open
Food Geeks Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	203 N Broome St	open
Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	407 E South Main St	open
Fresh Monkee - Waxhaw Fresh Monkee Erie	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	1000 Aspinal St	open
Great Wagon Road Distillery Waxhaw	Bar		122 W North Main St	open
Greco Fresh Grille Greco Fresh Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	201 W South Main St Ste G	open
Grits Home Cookin’	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	7909 Lancaster Hwy	open
GWR Waxhaw	Winery / distillery / taproom		122 W North Main St	open
Hacienda El Rey	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3901 Providence Rd S Ste A	open
Holy Cannoli	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Italian · Coffee	201 W South Main St # A	open
Java's Brewing Bakery & Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1526 S Providence Rd	open
JB Frozen Gold / Lazy Pig BBQ	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	116 E South Main St	open
Jebena Cafe Waxhaw	Café	African · Coffee	308 N Church St	open
Jekyll and Hyde Taphouse & Grill- Downtown Waxhaw Jekyll & Hyde Taphouse and Grill - Historic Belmont	Winery / distillery / taproom		216 W North Main St	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	8121 Kensington Drive	open
JoJo's Backyard BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	203 N. Broome St.	open
Kaiser Espresso	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	216 W North Main St	open
Marble Slab Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8133 Kensington Dr Ste B	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1617 Providence Rd S	open
Marlow Bennett Services Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2538B Cuthbertson Rd	open
Mary O'Neill's	Bar	British / Irish pub food	116 W North Main St	open
Marzano's Martini Bar	Bar		429 Lochaven Rd	open
Maxwell's Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		112 E South Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2532 Cuthbertson Rd	open
Middle James Brewing Company - Waxhaw	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		115 E North Main St	open
Mingfu Sushi and Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Japanese · Asian	8139 Kensington Dr	open
Moe's Southwest Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8133 Kensington Dr Ste C	open
Mud + McQueen Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Food truck	Coffee	Ace Hardware, 3927 Providence Rd S	open
Nothing Bundt Cakes Nothing Bundt Cakes	Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Bakery	9704 Rea Rd Ste A	open
Our Place	Bakery	Bakery	Waxhaw	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8139E Kensington Dr Ste E	open
Pelican's Snoballs Pelican's SnoBalls- Jax Beach	Dessert	Dessert	318 E South Main St Unit A	open
Phoenix Pools	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	4818 Lon Parker Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	703 W South Main St	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2538 Cuthbertson Rd, Bp Ste 121	open
Pizza Works	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Pizza · Italian · Ice cream / frozen desserts	529 N Broome St	open
Pizzeria Di Cicco	Food truck	Pizza		open
Provisions Waxhaw	Café	Coffee · American	107 W South Main St	open
Queens South Waxhaw	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1201 N Broome St	open
Rethi	Casual dining	Greek · American	201 W South Main St	open
Rippington's Restaurant	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	109 W South Main St	open
Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9925 Rea Rd Ste 100	open
Savory Swine BBQ Sauces	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1 main st	open
Siano's Pizza and Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5305 Waxhaw-Marvin Rd	open
Sip & Cinder	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1325 N Broome St	open
Sospeso Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	107 W South Main St	open
Southsiders	Casual dining · Bar		113 E North Main St	open
Stacks Kitchen (Waxhaw)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1315 N Broome St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9700 Rea Rd	open
Stuffed Olive Bar and Grill	Bar		1201 N Broome St Ste J	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3905-A Providence Rd	open
Sweet Enough Bakery Waxhaw	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6216 Nesbit Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2517 Cuthbertson Road	open
Taco Trailer- Taqueria La Costena	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	Providence Rd	open
TCBY TCBY	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	8133 Kensington Dr	open
The Caniac Cantina	Bar	American		open
The Crust Factory	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2055 Hamil Ridge Dr	open
The Cupcake Queen	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	201 W South Main St	open
The Mckee Ranch	Bar			open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	8121 Kensington Dr	open
Uptown Tea Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	310 E South Main St	open
Vera's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mexican	203 N Broome St D	open
Virtuoso Breadworks	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	205 Salem St	open
Waxhaw ABC Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1305 N Broome St	open
Waxhaw Boba Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	318 E South Main St Ste F	open
Waxhaw Boba Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	318 E South Main St Unit F	open
Waxhaw Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1805 Hoosac Dr	open
Waxhaw Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	109 E North Main St	open
Waxhaw Mill Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		401 E South Main St Unit 101a	open
Waxhaw Rock Store Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2538-B Cuthbertson Rd	open
Waxhaw Tap House	Bar		110 McDonald St	open
Waxhaw, NC - Fox's Pizza Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	407 East South Main Street, Waxhaw, NC 28173	open
Wayback Burgers Wayback Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	1002 Aspinal St A	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1000 Kemble St	open
Wesley-james, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		407 E South Main St	open
Yummy Factory	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	1325 N Broome St	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1615 S Providence Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	8157 Kensington Dr	open
Hatz Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1315 N Broome St # A	closed
Teeco's Hibachi Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1325 N Broome St	closed
The Baker	Bakery	Bakery	121 S Broome St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	15	7	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	19	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	27	27	11	13	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	29	28	13	11	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	33	32	12	14	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	35	34	13	15	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	33	32	13	15	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	33	33	12	17	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	34	33	13	16	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	36	33	14	15	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	33	31	14	13	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	37	36	13	17	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	40	39	16	17	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	42	41	14	19	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	47	45	16	19	9	—	NAICS2017
2019	53	51	21	21	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	55	52	19	23	9	—	NAICS2017
2021	62	58	21	23	12	—	NAICS2017
2022	73	67	21	28	17	3	NAICS2022
2023	76	71	23	27	20	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28173. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28108	3.1 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.