BMIE Market 28409

New Hanover County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	36,163 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,543 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,544 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,296 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,104 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,048 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$422,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,542 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.50) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.50, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.3	90	40%	+36.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	88.2	88	35%	+30.9
Market Momentum Score	75.3	75	25%	+18.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	36,163	92	40%	+36.9
Median household income (ACS)	111,048	87	40%	+34.8
Households (ACS)	14,544	93	20%	+18.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.2	94	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	36,163	92	20%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	111,048	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Seafood 6 · American 5 · Coffee 5 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Café 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
"save Seabreeze"	Bar · Quick service		1064 S Seabreeze Rd	open
Bar Masonboro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3317 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
Big Florida Kitchen LLC	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies	217 Westchester Rd	open
Courtyard Grill	Bar		3317 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
Greenville Loop Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5830 Greenville Loop Rd	open
Groovy Fish Gill N Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Seafood	1132 S Seabreeze Rd	open
Halligan's Public House	Bar		3317 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
J Michael's Philly Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	609 Piner Rd	open
Klondyke Farms Cafe	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	909 Pine Valley Dr	open
Ocean Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	5530 Peden Point Rd	open
Oceanic Restaurant & Pier	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	209 Englewood Dr	open
Oyster Al's Seafood Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	8112 Masonboro Sound Rd	open
Playa Bowls Playa Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	5619 Carolina Beach Rd #100	open
Port City Java Port City Java	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3301 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
Rjd Holdings, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4039 Masonboro Loop Rd Ste 1a	open
Siena Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3315 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
Sterner International Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4039 Masonboro Loop Rd Ste 1b	open
Tamashii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	4039 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
The Cardinal Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	3315 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
The Crown & Fiddle Pub and Kitchen	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	3317 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
The Drop In	Bar		1343 Big Cypress Dr	open
The Hayes Cafe	Café · Bar	Coffee	717 Duck Downe Ct	open
The Keg and Egg	Bar	American	4039 Masonboro Loop Rd	open
Video Vision NC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		514 Mohican Trl	open
Whiskey Trail at The Creek	Bar · Casual dining		4039 Masonboro Loop Rd Ste 1B	open
Wilmington Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5201 Shadow Branch Ln	open
Shug's Sweet Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	609 Piner Rd Ste B	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	815 Pine Grove Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	15	6	6	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	2	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	15	6	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	10	3	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	9	4	4	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	16	11	6	4	1	3	NAICS2002
2007	17	12	9	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	15	11	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	19	16	9	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	16	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	8	5	3	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	14	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	12	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	8	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	8	3	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28412	3.6 mi	91	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.