BMIE Market 28429

New Hanover County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,662 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,238 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,075 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,095 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±187 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$239,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,730 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28429
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 2–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28429. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.5	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.2	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	28.9	29	25%	+7.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,662	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	72,337	51	40%	+20.3
Households (ACS)	3,896	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.2	91	25%	+22.8
Population (ACS)	9,662	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	72,337	51	20%	+10.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-37.5	7	50%	+3.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Burgers 3 · Mexican 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Quick service 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antojitos Wilmington 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5212 N College Rd	open
Belle’s Barn and Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6401 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Buen Dia Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	5512 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Carolina Maple	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5424 Sidbury Rd	open
Charlie's Turkey Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	5212 College Rd N	open
Coast Line Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1915 N County Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6001 3 Castle Hayne Rd.	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	5601 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Hwy 55 Burgers, Shakes & Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6001 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Jung's Egg Roll Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5319 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Luck's Tavern	Bar		6401 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Porches Cafe	Café	Coffee	1030 Chair Rd	open
Razzle Dazzle Italian Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3149 Castle Hayne Rd	open
Riverside Kitchen & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1030 Chair Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6001 Castle Hayne Rd Unit 2	open
Tacos el zanka	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5801 Castle Hayne Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	5	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28429. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.