BMIE Market 28480

New Hanover County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,776 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±382 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,360 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,473 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,750 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$172,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85,697 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	59.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,336 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±773 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,131,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±162,237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28480
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	68.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28480. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.4	70	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.2	51	35%	+17.9
Market Momentum Score	34.4	34	25%	+8.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,776	51	40%	+20.3
Median household income (ACS)	172,500	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	1,360	55	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	64.8	7	25%	+1.8
Population (ACS)	2,776	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	172,500	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 10 · Seafood 8 · Coffee 6 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adapt Kitchen and Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	32 N Lumina Ave	open
Banks Channel Pub & Grille	Bar		530 Causeway Dr Ste T1	open
Bluewater Waterfront Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	4 Marina St	open
Buddy's Crab House & Oyster Shack	Bar		13 Salisbury St E	open
Causeway Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	114 Causeway Dr	open
Drift Cafe Drift Coffee Shop + Kitchen	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	114 Causeway Dr	open
East Oceanfront Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Waynick Blvd	open
Flying Machine Oyster Bar	Bar	Seafood	530 Causeway Dr	open
Four Star Specialites Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		92 Lumina Ave S	open
Jerry Allen's Sports Bar	Bar		38 N Lumina Ave	open
King Neptune Restaurant & Pirate Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	11 Lumina Ave N	open
Kohl's Frozen Custard & Kitchen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers · American	92 S Lumina Ave	open
Kruiser's Mobile Bar	Bar		5 Lumina Ave N	open
La Duna Paradiso	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean	275 Waynick Blvd	open
Lagerheads Tavern	Bar		35 N Lumina Ave #2802	open
Lone Wolf Consulting Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		22 Lumina Ave N	open
Mellow Mushroom Mellow Mushroom	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	224 Causeway Dr	open
Oceanic at the Crystal Pier - NC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	703 S Lumina Ave	open
Oceans	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1706 N Lumina Ave	open
Poe's Tavern Poe's Tavern - Sullivan's Island	Casual dining · Bar	American	212 Causeway Dr	open
Port City Java	Coffee shop	Coffee	32 Lumina Ave N	open
Portcitypop-ups	Restaurant (service type not stated)		22 Lumina Ave N	open
Red Dogs	Casual dining · Bar		7 N Lumina Ave	open
Shark Bar and Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	13 E Salisbury St	open
Solstice Kitchen and Cocktails	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1706 N Lumina Ave	open
South Beach Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	100 S Lumina Ave	open
SUNdays	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	708 B S Lumina Ave	open
SurfBerry	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	222 Causeway Dr	open
The Original Ice Cream Stand	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3 N Lumina Ave	open
The Palm Room	Bar		11 E Salisbury St	open
The Shore Shack Donuts and Sweets	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	222 Causeway Dr	open
The Workshop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	86 Waynick Blvd	open
Topsail Steamer Topsail Steamer	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Seafood	530 Causeway Dr	open
Tower 7 Baja Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	4 N Lumina Ave	open
Trolly Stop Trolly Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	94 S Lumina Ave	open
Twenty-two North	Bar	Seafood · American		open
Vito's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8 N Lumina Ave	open
Zeke's Wrightsville Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Breakfast	534 Causeway Dr	open
돌핀돌핀	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	703 S Lumina Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	17	14	1	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	16	13	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	17	14	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	16	13	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	12	1	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	16	13	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	18	15	1	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	11	—	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	17	13	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	12	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	13	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	20	18	14	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	19	17	13	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	19	17	13	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	18	16	13	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	13	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	16	14	12	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	18	15	11	3	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	20	17	11	3	3	3	NAICS2012
2017	21	18	14	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	23	20	14	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	21	19	14	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	20	15	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	17	13	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	19	12	3	4	3	NAICS2022
2023	21	18	10	4	4	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28480. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
28403	4.6 mi	200	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.