BMIE Market 28551

Lenoir County, North Carolina · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,078 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,478 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±446 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,093 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,144 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$49,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,992 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$868 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$131,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	132.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 28551
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	12 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 28551. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. North Carolina and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 688, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.9	51	40%	+20.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.6	45	35%	+15.6
Market Momentum Score	12.0	12	25%	+3.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,078	76	40%	+30.3
Median household income (ACS)	49,092	14	40%	+5.5
Households (ACS)	5,478	76	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.3	94	25%	+23.5
Population (ACS)	14,078	76	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	49,092	14	20%	+2.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 12 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-45.5	7	20%	+1.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 4 · Mexican 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Food truck 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2nd Street Cafe-LaGrange	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	405 E Washington St	open
Bojangles' Bojangles	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	7858 US-70	open
Booneshine Brewing Company.	Bar		4700 James Boone Ln	open
Carolina Bob'z BBQ	Food truck		La Grange NC	open
Dos Marias Grill and Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	131 S Caswell St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	101 W Washington St Wilcohess	open
Garden Spot Hawaiian Shaved Ice	Dessert		420 E Washington St	open
Grounded and Baked	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee	106 W Railroad St	open
Hearth & Barrel Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		131 S Caswell St	open
Heroes Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		6316 US-70 E	open
Jin Jin Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	304 E Washington St	open
Ken's Grill & NC Barbecue	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	7645 US-70	open
La Flama Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	131 S Caswell St	open
LaGrange Hawaiian Shaved Ice	Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Hawaiian / Pacific · Juice / smoothies	102 W Washington St	open
Little J's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	402 E Washington St	open
Moma Nem's Legacy Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Burgers	108 S Wooten St	open
Murray's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	123 E Washington St	open
Noggin's Tavern	Bar		7799 US Highway 70 W	open
Sandpiper Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	7877 US-70	open
Silviamanzanarez	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Breakfast		open
Sweet Delightful's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		203 Pioneer Dr	open
Taqueria Michoacan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7823 US-70	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	8	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 28551. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.